Situation report
What exactly did Israel just agree to?
After two years of relentless war, the Trump Plan’s first phase has been sealed, guns fall silent, hostages return home, and Israel’s troops begin to pull back. Yet behind the fragile calm lies a storm: Phase Two looms, demanding Gaza’s demilitarization and the end of Hamas rule. The battlefield may quiet, but the real struggle, over power, peace, and survival, has only just begun.
An agreement was reached overnight on the first phase of the Trump plan, which stipulates the following key points:
1. Ceasefire: An immediate ceasefire will go into effect.
2. Hostage Release: All Israeli hostages, both alive and deceased, will be released.
3. Prisoner Exchange: In exchange for the hostages, Israel will release approximately 250 life-sentence prisoners and 1,700 Gazan detainees.
4. IDF Withdrawal: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will pull back to a predetermined line, leaving Israel in control of the northern Gaza Strip, the eastern border, as well as the areas of Khan Yunis and Rafah, excluding the Al-Mawasi area. Morag Road and the Philadelphi Route will also remain under Israeli control.
5. Humanitarian Aid: Aid will be delivered to the Gaza Strip at volumes similar to those introduced during the last hostage-release deal in January.
Phase Two
With the hostages, Hamas’s primary bargaining chip, back in Israeli hands, negotiations between Israel and Hamas will commence to agree on the remaining articles of the Trump plan. These include the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, neutralizing the threat from Gaza, preventing the continuation of Hamas rule, and the deployment of international forces.
Phase Two has not yet been agreed upon by the parties, but its framework and principles were established in advance by President Trump.
Israel’s Strengths Entering Phase Two:
1. All hostages are home.
2. The Trump plan explicitly mandates the demilitarization of Gaza and the termination of Hamas rule, despite Hamas’s declarations that it will not disarm.
3. President Trump is considered the most pro-Israel American president to date.
4. No UN Security Council resolution currently prevents Israel from renewing combat operations.
Israel’s Weaknesses Entering Phase Two:
Following the establishment of a ceasefire, international and American pressure on Israel not to resume fighting, in the event that no agreement is reached on Phase Two, will be particularly intense. Although there are no UN Security Council guarantees, returning to combat would be exceedingly difficult and expose Israel to significant international pressure.