Political analyst Amit Segal says the gap between recent polls, and between the two camps' internal assessments, has reached a level he has never seen before, with one side heading for a historic win and the other for a catastrophic loss, and neither aware which is which.
Writing in Israel Hayom, Segal described two parallel meetings: opposition leaders coordinating positions and projecting unity, and on the other side, the Likud campaign leadership convened to settle what the real picture is. "Is the right-wing bloc heading for a historic defeat not seen in 20 years, as most polls throughout most of the term predict, or for a stunning achievement against all odds?" he wrote.
The conclusion after hours of conflicting data and attempts to crack the puzzle, Segal reported, was that Likud and the bloc are closer to victory than to defeat. That is not a foregone conclusion, he noted: Netanyahu is a pessimist, an alarmist and a realist. When everyone around him is certain of victory, he is convinced defeat is near. When everyone is sure all is calm, he detects mutinies and coups. Ofer Winter, he added, is experiencing the phenomenon right now.
"We've never had anything like this," Segal wrote. "There has never been such a gap between polls, 49 seats for the Netanyahu bloc or 64? and never such a gap between the perception of the two main contenders. At Eisenkot's camp they operate on the assumption that their bloc is leading, and can grow if they bring down Winter and Zelekha. At Netanyahu's camp they operate on the assumption that their bloc is winning, and will secure it if they bring down Winter and Zelekha. Someone has to be making the mistake of his life."
