Ramon: Eisenkot to form minority government after elections

Former Justice Minister Haim Ramon laid out his forecast for Israel's coming elections in an interview with Kol B'ramah Radio, offering a stark assessment of Prime Minister Netanyahu's chances and pointing to Gadi Eisenkot as the likely next head of government.

"There is in my opinion no chance that Netanyahu's coalition reaches 61," Ramon said. "And if it doesn't reach 61 or at least 60, Netanyahu will not be the next prime minister after the elections."

Ramon, a senior figure in Labor during its years in power, said the central scenario is not another immediate round of voting but rather the formation of a minority government. The man expected to assemble it, he said, is Eisenkot.

"If there isn't a collapse of the Iranian regime in the coming weeks, and if Liberman or Bennett don't make a different political move, I think Eisenkot will put together a minority government, because he will be the largest party and will also have the majority of recommenders," Ramon estimated.

"The goal is to move Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir out"

Such a government, Ramon explained, would not necessarily be built to last but to serve an initial purpose: "Their goal is to move Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir out of their offices. The central goal is for Netanyahu to leave the Prime Minister's Office. Once he's out, everything is open."

The first step of such a government, he said, would be establishing a state commission of inquiry, followed by an attempt to widen the coalition base through defectors from Likud, Netanyahu's retirement, or support from the chareidi parties.

"To bring down a government you need 61 - to form one, you don't"

Addressing the political mechanics, Ramon explained: "To bring down a government you need 61 Knesset members, but to form a government, you don't need 61." The Arab parties, he said, could support the government from outside through votes in favor or abstentions, without a formal coalition commitment, and it's possible that some chareidi elements would also choose to give it selective external support.

On the public agenda, Ramon noted that constant focus on security issues generally strengthens Netanyahu, while a return of chareidi enlistment and draft-dodging to center stage is expected to strengthen the change bloc.

The Arab parties are expected to receive 14–15 seats, he said, leaving about 105 seats for all the Zionist and chareidi parties combined. "Out of those 105 seats, it's difficult to impossible for one of the blocs to reach 61 seats on its own," Ramon summed up, estimating that the opposition's and Arab factions' desire to replace the government will overcome the residue and disputes between them.