Elections 2026

Netanyahu may fail even with 61 seats

Analyst Shmuel Rosner and pollster Tzuriel Sharon lay out a scenario in which the prime minister crosses the threshold but still cannot assemble a coalition, nine days before Israelis vote

Jfeed Staff

OCT 18, 2026 16:07

1 min read

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Nine days before Israel goes to the polls, the election map is pointing toward a deadlock and two of the country's leading political analysts say both sides have reason to worry.

"Both Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu should be very concerned," analyst and commentator Shmuel Rosner said in an interview on Kol Berama radio. The latest numbers, he said, show a sustained balance in which neither camp can pull ahead. "Right now the central scenario is that there will be no decision, and neither bloc will be able to form a government."

Pollster Tzuriel Sharon pointed to the one variable that could upend the race on election day, and the one that is nearly impossible to predict. "There is one factor that can change everything and we cannot assess it: turnout," Sharon said.

But even if the right-wing bloc manages to cross the 61-seat threshold, Sharon warned, the path to a stable government is still lined with political obstacles. "Even if Netanyahu surprises and gets over 61 mandates, it is not certain that the Vizhnitz faction in Agudas Yisroel or Moshe Feiglin's party will support him," he said.

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