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Bleak Outlook on Gaza Hostages

Trump: Close to 40 hostages are probably dead | WATCH

President Donald Trump offered his bleakest outlook to date on the fate of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, telling reporters Friday from the Oval Office that “very close to 40” of the 48 captives are likely dead.

Families of Israelis held hostage in Gaza hold a press conference in near the Prime Minister's residence in Jerusalem, September 20, 2025.
Families of Israelis held hostage in Gaza hold a press conference in near the Prime Minister's residence in Jerusalem, September 20, 2025. (Photo by Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

President Donald Trump issued his most dire warning yet on the fate of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, telling reporters Friday that "very close to 40" of the 48 remaining captives are likely dead, leaving only "probably 20 that are living, it might be a little bit less."

It's not clear what exactly he meant by this. The numbers, as Israel currently understands them are 28 bodies and 20 living hostages. If 40 are dead, that would mean, there are only 8 still living.

Speaking from the Oval Office before signing executive orders, Trump defended Israel's military push into Gaza City, suggesting the operation could free survivors rather than harm them.

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We have close to 40 hostages deceased. Many of them died in those terrible tunnels," Trump said, recounting emotional talks with families seeking their loved ones' bodies. "The parents want them every bit as much, almost more, than as if their son or daughter were alive."

His estimate sharply clashes with Israel's assessment of 20 alive and 28 dead. Israeli officials and hostage families have pushed back, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum warning that the Gaza City offensive heightens risks to those still captive.

Trump's comments echo his escalating pessimism this month. On September 8, he remarked that fewer than 20 may be alive since "they tend to die," estimating "about 38 bodies [meaning there are only 10 living]." Days earlier, on September 6, he suggested some of the presumed 20 alive "may have recently died," amid "very deep" U.S.-Hamas talks. On September 3, he demanded Hamas release "all 20 hostages" to end the war swiftly.

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Trump has floated U.S. proposals, including freeing all 48 hostages on day one in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and pausing the operation, which Israel is weighing. Social media clips of his Friday statements quickly circulated, highlighting the gap with Israeli figures. Hamas has not commented, as negotiations stall amid the nearly two-year war sparked by the October 7, 2023, attack.

Channel 14's Tamir Morag explained, “I suggest not getting worked up over the numbers President Trump cites. He has many qualities, but accuracy in data, unfortunately, is not one of them.”

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