Europe Could Face Jet Fuel Shortages by June as Iran War Disrupts Supplies
The IEA is warning of a "critical" jet fuel shortage that could ground European summer travel by June. With prices doubling and fuel stocks plummeting toward the danger zone, airlines and travelers are bracing for a season of surging fares and systemic flight cancellations
Summer holidays in Europe could get a lot more grounded than planned.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning in its April 2026 Oil Market Report: Europe risks physical jet fuel shortages as early as June if the region can only replace about half of the supplies it normally imports from the Middle East. reuters.com
The culprit? The ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has severely disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for much of the world’s oil and refined products.
Europe typically starts the year with roughly 37–38 days of jet fuel inventory. Stocks naturally dip toward 30 days by mid-year. The red-flag level is 23 days of forward demand cover, below that, experts say physical shortages and “demand destruction” (think flight cancellations, rationing, or forced cutbacks at airports) become likely.
The Scenarios according to the IEA:
Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) sounded the alarm even earlier, warning last week that a “systemic” shortage could emerge within three weeks (potentially early May) unless tanker flows resume significantly.
Jet fuel prices have already surged sharply, some reports show increases of nearly double since the conflict escalated, adding pressure on airlines that are already operating on thin margins.
What This Means for Travelers
The European Commission acknowledges the risk, stating there is “no evidence of fuel shortage at present,” but supply issues “could occur in the near future, in particular for jet fuels.”
European refiners are already running near maximum capacity to boost output, but there’s limited wiggle room to make up for the lost imports quickly.
This isn’t the first energy headache tied to the Middle East conflict, but jet fuel is especially vulnerable because Europe relies heavily on seaborne deliveries from the Gulf.
For now, the message from the IEA and airport groups is clear: Europe needs alternative supplies quickly.
The skies (and fuel tanks) over Europe may depend on how quickly the Hormuz situation stabilizes.