A sharp new economic analysis is warning that President Trump’s naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has put Iran on a brutal 13-day clock.
According to Miad Maleki, an Iranian-born former U.S. Treasury official, Iran’s oil storage tanks will reach full capacity in roughly 13 days. Once that happens, Tehran will have no choice but to shut in its own oil wells.
Experts say shutting in wells, especially older fields, can cause permanent damage to reservoir pressure and long-term production capacity. It’s not just a short-term headache, it could cripple Iran’s oil industry for years.
Maleki’s breakdown, now going viral after being highlighted by macro trader Boris Schlossberg (@Fxflow), paints a dire picture:
- 90% of Iran’s exports and imports move through the blocked Strait of Hormuz
- Roughly half a billion dollars per day in lost revenue
- The Iranian rial has already crashed more than 50%
- Food inflation is spiking above 120%
- Gasoline shortages could hit 40% nationwide
This comes as the blockade, now in its second day, is already being tested in real time, with a Chinese-linked sanctioned tanker successfully breaching the strait yesterday and a second one entering today.
The clock is ticking.
