NYC Exodus Alert?
Poll Claims Nearly 1M NY Residents Ready to Bolt if Mamdani Wins
Mayor Mamdani? It sure looks like it. New York is going one way, and New Yorkers are running far away from the nightmare that starts tomorrow.
As voters head to the polls today in New York's hotly contested mayoral election, a bombshell poll is fueling fears of a historic population drain: Nearly 1 million New Yorkers (765,000, to be exact) say they'd "definitely" pack up and leave if Democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani claims victory, according to a new survey by J.L. Partners. That's about 9% of the city's 8.5 million residents, potentially the largest single-city exodus in U.S. history if it materializes.
The poll, first reported by the Daily Mail and amplified across conservative outlets like the New York Post and American Thinker, paints a dire picture of alarm over Mamdani's platform. Another 25% (2.12 million people) said they'd "consider" relocating, citing worries about skyrocketing taxes, rent freezes, and a perceived anti-business, pro-"woke" agenda that could tank the economy.
High-earners are especially spooked: 7% of those making $250,000+ annually vowed to flee, raising red flags for Wall Street and the city's fiscal backbone.The Poll BreakdownConducted: October 30–November 1, 2025, via phone and online among 1,000 registered NYC voters (margin of error: ±3.1%).
Top concerns? A proposed $10 billion tax hike on millionaires and businesses to fund free everything (rent control, universal childcare, police defunding). One respondent quipped: "It'll be like Detroit on steroids."
Demographics: Strongest backlash from Republicans (85% "definitely" or "consider" leaving), independents (40%), and even some moderates. Jewish voters, per a separate AtlasIntel poll, favor Cuomo by 20 points but still give Mamdani a narrow edge citywide (40.6% vs. Cuomo's 34%, Sliwa's 24%).
Mamdani, the 34-year-old Ugandan-born state assemblyman from Queens (and DSA member), leads in Real Clear Politics averages by 14.5 points over independent ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. Endorsements from AOC, Bernie Sanders, and a private Obama pep talk ("Your campaign's been impressive") have supercharged his youth-driven base, but critics like Trump (who called him a "communist") warn it'll spark a "mass flee."
Is This Real Panic - or Poll Hyperbole?
Skeptics are calling bluff. Philip Bump at The Washington Post (via Ground News) notes the "nearly 1M" figure is hypothetical, polls often capture rhetorical outrage, not actual moves. NYC's already lost 500,000 residents since 2020 (per Census data), mostly to suburbs over COVID/crime/taxes, but no mayor's triggered a million-person stampede. Betting sites like Polymarket and Kalshi peg Mamdani's win odds at 90-95%, with Cuomo at 5-10%, but exodus bets? Crickets.
Even Vivek Ramaswamy piled on in July, offering $50K relocation grants to NYC execs fleeing "socialist" policies, a stunt that went viral.
Broader Context: NYC's Fragile Recovery
The Big Apple’s rebounding from pandemic lows, tourism up, crime down 10% YOY, but Mamdani's pledges (freeze rents at 2019 levels, slash NYPD by $1B, "millionaires tax") have real estate titans sweating. Broker James Franey told the NY Post: "Buyers in the $3M–$5M range are ghosting deals."
NJ GOP's Jack Ciattarelli even tweeted: "New Jersey welcomes fleeing New Yorkers, our taxes won't chase you out!"
If Mamdani wins (polls say likely), expect lawsuits, donor boycotts, and maybe a Cuomo-Sliwa unity ticket postmortem.
For now, it's Election Day drama: Turnout could hit 1.9M (highest since '69). Pray for no traffic jams or actual exodus lines.