Secrets for Sale? The Explosive Polymarket Scandal Linking IDF Reservists and Secret US Operations
An IDF reservist and a civilian have been indicted for using top-secret military intelligence to win hundreds of thousands on Polymarket. By "phenomenally" predicting the exact dates of Israel's 2025 strikes on Iran, the pair turned state secrets into a gambling windfall
In a staggering breach of national security, the Tel Aviv District Court cleared for publication today that an IDF reservist and a civilian have been indicted for using classified military intelligence to win hundreds of thousands of shekels on the popular decentralized betting platform Polymarket.
The investigation, a joint effort by the Shin Bet (ISA), the Malmab security unit (under the Ministry of Defense), and the Israel Police, revealed that the suspects exploited the reservist’s access to sensitive operational data to place high-stakes wagers on the timing of Israeli military actions.
The "Rico Suave" Bets
The case centers on a series of "phenomenally accurate" predictions made during "Operation Rising Lion" (the 12-Day War) in June 2025. According to the indictment and earlier reports by Kan News, the suspects, using anonymous accounts like "Rico Suave," successfully bet on four specific events:
The suspects reportedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars, netting a profit estimated at over $150,000 (approx. 550,000 NIS) by correctly predicting moves that were unknown to the general public or even global intelligence agencies at the time.
Security officials emphasized that these activities represent more than just financial greed; they pose a direct threat to the lives of soldiers and the success of military operations.
"Using secret information for gambling creates a real security risk to IDF activities," a joint statement from the defense establishment noted. "Aggregating unusual betting patterns on public platforms like Polymarket can serve as an indicator to enemies of imminent operational activity."
The State Attorney's Cyber Division has filed a severe indictment against the pair, including charges of serious security offenses (unlawful use of classified information), bribery and obstruction of justice.
While several suspects were originally detained, the current indictment focuses on the primary civilian-reservist duo. Authorities clarified that no senior defense officials are implicated in the scheme.
The Israeli case mirrors a similar scandal in the United States, where a user reportedly earned $436,000 on Polymarket by betting on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a secret U.S.-led operation in Caracas. These incidents have sparked a global debate on how decentralized "prediction markets" are being weaponized by insiders with access to state secrets.