New Iowa poll contains good news for Harris - but also possible upside for Trump

A new Iowa poll released by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register today (Sunday) shows a presidential race which has shrunk significantly - from 50-32 in favor of over Biden to just 47-43 over Harris.

Part of the tightening of the race is due to a clear increase in enthusiasm among Democratic and Harris voters - including college educated, young, and female Americans, who now claim to be 6 points more "extremely or very enthusiastic" about voting their candidate compared to Trump, 80-74.

Another reason for the tightening is the continued presence of RFK, Jr. in the poll, even though he has since dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. A head to head poll might have shown different results in either direction.

Trump does have some room for optimism, though, as a Selzer September poll showed the race tied 47-47 in 2020 only to shift to Trump being up 7 points in October, which was around what Trump won in the vote (53-45). A similar shift might portend a Trump victory, depending on how wide a margin he wins.