Turkey Prepares Contingency Plans for Likely US-Iran War
Ankara triggers Plan A, B, and C as U.S. carrier groups move into striking range of Iran. Fearing a tidal wave of one million refugees, Turkey is preparing a massive buffer zone to seal its border and insulate itself from the fallout of a potential Iranian revolution.
Reports from Turkish media indicate that the Turkish government is actively preparing for various scenarios and implications of a potential war between the United States and Iran, including the establishment of a buffer zone along the Turkey-Iran border in the event of the Iranian regime's collapse and a subsequent wave of migrants.
This information emerged from a briefing by the Turkish Foreign Ministry to Parliament's foreign affairs committee, as reported by outlets like Türkiye newspaper and Middle East Eye.
According to the briefing, Ankara has developed multiple contingency plans—A, B, and C—for all eventualities, with a focus on preventing a massive influx of refugees into Turkey.
Officials emphasized the need for a buffer zone on the Iranian side of the border to ensure that any migrants remain there, drawing from experiences with Syrian refugees during past conflicts.
Estimates suggest that a full-scale war could drive up to one million Iranian refugees toward the Turkish border.
The preparations are set against a backdrop of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including U.S. military deployments such as reconnaissance aircraft and carrier strike groups in the Middle East, amid concerns over Iran's nuclear program and internal protests.
Turkish officials have stated that the country is ready for every situation, reflecting lessons from the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the Syrian civil war, which disrupted energy, trade, and led to refugee crises.
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen have signaled readiness for attacks, while Iran's armed forces remain on full alert.
Despite the recent protests in Iran, and deadly crackdown resulting in more than 6,000 confirmed deaths according to rights groups (and possibly 30,000+), Turkish defense officials reported no significant migration increase as of mid-January 2026.