The American president's words come during a tense period in the Middle East, as Israeli security officials identify signs of possible escalation from Iran. The economic and maritime pressure on Tehran, combined with damage to its oil export capabilities, present the Iranian regime with significant challenges.
According to assessments by senior Israeli officials reported by Ynet, the heavy economic and maritime blockade imposed on Iran, alongside severe damage to its oil export capacity, pose a real threat to regime stability and its ability to fund security apparatus and proxy organizations in the region. This frustration is led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards leadership, who reportedly believe the diplomatic campaign and the expired memorandum of understanding were merely American-Israeli cover for buying time ahead of a broader attack. Consequently, assessments are growing that Iran does not intend to continue waiting for its economic erosion, but may initiate escalation itself to shuffle the deck.
According to the Ynet report, the Iranian plan includes applying direct and indirect military and economic pressure on the United States and Israel. Tehran's guiding principle is based on striking critical energy infrastructure, severely disrupting international shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and attacking Washington's allies.
The strategic logic behind this move is creating shock in global markets, sharply raising fuel and electricity prices, and creating an economic crisis that would increase internal political pressure on President Trump. In Washington, where a sharp debate is underway about the campaign's cost ahead of November's midterm congressional elections, officials understand well that dramatic disruption to global energy supply could become a primary political obstacle for the Republican administration.
Parallel to offensive threats, Israeli and American security establishments are monitoring with great concern, according to the report, the pace of Iran's military rehabilitation, which intelligence gathered has proven faster than expected. The Iranians exploited the period of relative calm to rebuild missile and drone systems that were damaged, while tightening Revolutionary Guards control and appointing commanders from the Iran-Iraq War to key operational and intelligence positions.
Intelligence reports even indicate that advisers and commanders from Iran were recently sent to Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon to coordinate combined attacks. In Yemen, in coordination with the Houthis, quality targets have been prepared including Saudi ports and energy facilities, alongside deployment of advanced combat means. Additionally, Iran is examining options for sabotage operations on underwater communication cables in the Persian Gulf, initiating political unrest among Shiite populations in the Gulf, and even conducting limited ground raids.
Another critical derivative of the tension concerns Iran's nuclear program. At the center of Israeli and American concern stands the fortified underground site near Natanz, called "Pickaxe Mountain." Updated satellite images show continued excavation work and active engineering movement around tunnel entrances at the complex, while International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are not authorized to visit the site.
Although there is currently no public proof that this is an active enrichment facility, its deep and fortified structure raises heavy concern that it is intended to serve as a strategic "insurance policy" for the nuclear program against air strikes. In response to accelerated Iranian armament, Israel's Defense Ministry is working to accelerate production of multi-layered defense systems, especially "Arrow" interceptors, understanding that in the next campaign, interceptor inventory will have decisive importance no less than the number of missiles in enemy hands.
This development places Israel and the U.S. before a complex strategic dilemma, as alongside close security coordination, internal political considerations also enter the equation.
Jerusalem is preparing both for a scenario of defense against an initiated Iranian attack and for the possibility of an Israeli or American preemptive strike, with the timing and scope of action heavily influenced by President Trump's decisions.
Simultaneously, Israel's political arena may also affect the situation as local and national elections approach, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have an interest in presenting decisive action against Tehran as a strategic achievement.
The current situation creates high risk for "miscalculation"—a reality where each side might deliver a preemptive blow from fear the other side is about to attack, requiring peak alertness in the security establishment both in defense systems and in the ability to transition quickly to offense.
