Minutes to Midnight: Behind the Scenes of the Israeli Intel That Exposed Iran’s Nuclear Sprint - and Triggered the Strike

A dramatic intelligence assessment recently presented to Israel’s political leadership warned: Iran is just one decision away from building a nuclear bomb - and if it chooses to move forward, it could have one within weeks. According to senior defense officials, this warning - described as “golden intelligence” - played a critical role in the decision to launch a preemptive operation.

At the heart of this intelligence was a secret Iranian initiative to develop one of the most critical elements of a nuclear weapon - what is known as the "weapon group." This component has long been absent from Iran’s declared nuclear activities, as its development would clearly signal an intent to build an actual bomb.

To construct a nuclear weapon, several elements are required. The first is enriched uranium - something Iran has been producing at an accelerated pace for years. Intelligence estimates indicate that Iran currently holds enough enriched uranium for approximately 15 bombs and is only days away from enriching it to full military-grade level.

But the second component - the weapon group - is the real red line. This refers to the assembly of the nuclear detonation mechanism itself, the engineering core of a bomb. Until now, Iran has publicly avoided acknowledging any work on this aspect, as it is a definitive step toward weaponization.

Israeli intelligence uncovered this covert program, which operated under extreme secrecy. Iran had recruited top scientists, dividing them into small, compartmentalized teams - each tasked with developing a different part of the weapon group. According to sources, these were highly technical scientific projects that leave no room for doubt: anyone working on these specific subjects is working toward building a nuclear bomb.

The covert effort reportedly began around late 2023 or early 2024 - after Hamas’s October 7th attack on Israel. Israeli officials believe that the strategic decision in Tehran to accelerate weapon-related activities came in response to that regional upheaval.

In recent months, the program progressed significantly. Iranian scientists began testing key components - and, according to intelligence reports, some of these tests were successful. Israeli defense officials view this stage as critical: once testing begins, the project moves from theoretical to operational.

The message delivered to Israel’s leadership was stark: Iran is now in a “breakout zone.” If it decides to move forward, it could likely assemble a nuclear bomb within a matter of weeks. Moreover, intelligence officials issued a sobering caveat: it’s possible that Israel does not have the full picture - and Iran may be even closer to a bomb than currently believed.

This was the piece of intelligence that, in Israel’s view, could not be ignored. It left only one conclusion: the time had come for a preemptive strike.