Matter of Days?
Trump Calls for Iranian Insurrection, But US Navy Strike Groups Remain in Caribbean
As oil prices spike on war fears, analysts warn the US military may not be positioned for an immediate strike, leaving Israel to potentially do the heavy lifting as Tehran showcases videos of ‘armed rioters’ to European envoys.
President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against the Iranian regime on Tuesday, urging protesters to "take over your institutions", effectively calling for a coup d'état, and declaring ominously that "HELP IS ON THE WAY." The statement caused an immediate spike in global oil prices as markets braced for potential military intervention.
However, despite the Commander-in-Chief’s bellicose warnings, military analysts point to a logistical reality that contradicts the threat of an imminent American attack: the majority of the US Navy’s strike capabilities are currently stationed in the Caribbean, far from the Persian Gulf.
The Logistics Gap: ‘At Least 5 Days’
While the President has reportedly been briefed on military options, regional analysts suggest the US is not currently positioned for a "kinetic" strike. Analyst Levent Kemal observed that "no matter how much Trump threatens, most of the US Navy strike group is still in the Caribbean."
Kemal assesses that the US would need "at least 5 days" to prepare for a strike and currently lacks the ready capacity to defend against the inevitable Iranian retaliation. This logistical gap has led to speculation that any immediate action would require Israel to do the "heavy lifting," potentially utilizing Israeli F-35s to escort American B-52 bombers targeting Supreme Leader Khamenei's assets.
Iran Counter-Attacks with ‘Hypocrisy’ Narrative
Feeling the pressure, the Iranian regime has launched a desperate diplomatic offensive. Tehran summoned ambassadors from France, Germany, Italy, and Britain on Monday to screen a compilation of videos purportedly showing "armed violence carried out by protesters."
The footage, intended to justify the regime's crackdown, showed masked individuals firing pump-action shotguns, attacking police with knives, and setting buildings ablaze. In a bid to paint the US as hypocritical, Iranian officials also displayed footage of the recent shooting of anti-ICE activist Renee Good in Minneapolis, contrasting Trump’s defense of the ICE agent with his condemnation of Iranian security forces.
Diplomacy in the Shadows
While Trump publicly canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, accusing them of failing to stop the killing, backchannel communications tell a different story.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, secretly met with Iran’s exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, over the weekend. Pahlavi has been positioning himself as a transitional leader, urging the Iranian diaspora to reclaim their embassies and replace the Islamic Republic flag with the pre-1979 version.