Trump’s Red Line Dilemma: Humiliating Fold or "The Gates of Hell"?
A Defining Weekend for the 'Axis of Evil': Why an American Retreat in the Gulf Could Empower Iran, Russia, and China.
The clock is ticking in the Persian Gulf. As of now the Middle East is staring down a "now or never" moment that will define the Trump administration's second term and the global order for years to come.
According to a report by Avi Ashkenazi from Maariv, the next few days will determine whether the world witnesses a historic American strike on Iranian soil or a "humiliating retreat" that could shatter U.S. deterrence.
The "Peacock" Strategy
For the last month and a half, the U.S. has engaged in what Ashkenazi calls a display of "peacock feathers", a massive buildup of naval and aerial armadas in the Gulf intended to project overwhelming power.
Trump’s generals and the Pentagon are reportedly fully aware that if this armada sails home without action, the "Axis of Evil" (Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea) will view the U.S. as a paper tiger. High-stakes meetings are scheduled for the coming weekend and they are supposed to be the final "cut" where the decision will be made to either engage or fold.
An American withdrawal would do more than just stabilize the Iranian regime; it would essentially hand a "super-power" status to Iran’s leadership.
A retreat would immediately embolden Hezbollah in Lebanon and increase the pace of Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Nations like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt would find themselves under intensified Iranian pressure, lacking a reliable American shield.
Beyond the Middle East, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un are watching closely. In their eyes, a U.S. backtrack in 2026 is a green light for their own regional ambitions.
While the U.S. weighs its options, the IDF is not waiting. Israeli intelligence estimates that any direct conflict with Iran will inevitably spark a regional war.
The IDF understands it will be required to engage in days of high-intensity combat against Lebanon. Military sources say the 'fire strike' planned for Hezbollah will be designed to ensure the organization cannot remain on its feet."
The Israeli military is preparing for a reality where Iran activates all its proxies, from Iraq and Yemen to Syria, in a coordinated effort to overwhelm regional defenses.
The "Peacock" phase is over. By the end of this week, we will know if the U.S. has re-established its position as the global arbiter of force or if the doors to a new, chaotic reality have been kicked open.