Netanyahu has said he does not want the fighting to resume, but he issued a blunt warning in several interviews. "If Iran makes a mistake and tries to attack us, it will simply make the mistake of its life," he said. He added that renewed war is "not convenient for us" in the weeks before a national election. Israel has no absentee voting.
Trump has also said he does not seek a new war. Speaking to reporters in Atlanta last week, however, he declared: "Wait til you see what we do to Iran."
Washington is weighing military options. The New York Times reported that Trump administration officials discussed a short, intense campaign of roughly three days aimed at Iran's missile and drone arsenal. Strikes on energy facilities and the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could be added. The Atlantic reported that the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be carried out before the midterms.
"Without a diplomatic settlement, the chances of escalation are very high," said Danny Citrinowicz, who previously led the Iran desk in the research division of Israeli military intelligence. "Trump cannot declare victory now, but he also cannot leave without doing something," he said. Citrinowicz said a three-day campaign "would allow Trump to say that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear project, won the war and was ending the conflict."
Avner Vilan, a former senior Israeli security official and Iran expert, said Trump "has said he won't attack before the midterm elections." He warned that "all it would take is one significant incident to send things spiraling out of control."
Gil Murciano, another Israeli expert, said American opposition to the war reduces the likelihood of a US-initiated escalation before the midterms. A Pew Research Center poll published last week showed that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of military action against Iran. Israelis are divided over a preemptive strike. A poll conducted last month by the Institute for National Security Studies found that opponents slightly outnumbered supporters.
