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Gaza's Post-Ceasefire Reality

Why the IDF Can't Fight Hamas Like It Fights Hezbollah 

 As Hezbollah regains strength, Israel faces a multi-arena bind, proving the limits of military asymmetry in hybrid wars. 

hezbollah flags
hezbollah flags (Photo: Shutterstock /apps media production)

A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, which took effect on October 10, has halted major hostilities between Israel and Hamas after nearly two years of war. The agreement includes phased Israeli troop withdrawals to a "yellow line" buffer zone, hostage and prisoner exchanges, and increased humanitarian aid flows, though violations, including Israeli airstrikes that killed at least 97 Palestinians since the truce began, have tested its endurance.

Meanwhile, on Israel's northern border, a November 2024 ceasefire with Hezbollah, extended into 2025, has largely held, allowing the Iran-backed militia to regroup amid Lebanon's reconstruction efforts.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a decisive, intelligence-driven campaign against Hezbollah, degrading its leadership and infrastructure through airstrikes and targeted incursions, without a full ground occupation of Lebanon.

Yet replicating this approach in Gaza against Hamas is improbable, constrained by geography, operational realities, political pressures, and the risk of renewed escalation while Hezbollah rebuilds. Here's why.

1. Gaza's Urban Density vs. Lebanon's Open Terrain: A Targeting Nightmare

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The IDF's success against Hezbollah relied on precision strikes against identifiable, semi-conventional targets in southern Lebanon's rugged but less populated highlands. Hezbollah, structured like an organized army with fixed weapon caches, launch sites, and command posts, allowed for easier intelligence mapping and aerial degradation, over 155,000 weapons confiscated, including 13,000 anti-tank missiles and drones.

Israel's five permanent outposts in southern Lebanon, maintained post-ceasefire, enable ongoing enforcement without deep penetration.

Gaza, by contrast, is a hyper-dense urban strip, 365 square kilometers packed with 2.3 million people, where Hamas embeds in civilian infrastructure, using a vast tunnel network ("the Metro") for asymmetric guerrilla warfare.

Strikes risk high civilian casualties, fueling international backlash and complicating aid distribution under the ceasefire.

Unlike Hezbollah's overland resupply via Syria, Hamas's smuggling tunnels from Egypt are harder to sever entirely without ground control, but occupying Gaza's ruins would demand tens of thousands of troops for months, per IDF estimates for operations like "Gideon's Chariots."

2. Divergent Objectives: Containment in Lebanon, Eradication in Gaza

Israel's Hezbollah campaign prioritized limited goals: pushing fighters north of the Litani River, securing the border, and enabling 60,000 northern evacuees' return—achieved without regime change in Beirut. The ceasefire's U.S.-led monitoring allows strikes on violations, keeping Hezbollah at bay.

In Gaza, the mandate is total: dismantle Hamas's military and governance, free all hostages, and prevent resurgence, goals unmet after two years, with IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir calling it "one of the most complex conflicts" faced.

The ceasefire's focus on de-escalation and aid resumption limits aggressive moves; violations like the October 19 strikes (killing 44) drew U.S. pressure to resume the truce, not escalate.

Full replication would breach the deal, risking collapse and renewed Hamas rocket fire.

3. Hezbollah's Rebuild: A Northern Distraction Amid Resource Strain

While the ceasefire pauses major Gaza ops, Hezbollah is actively rebuilding, receiving $60 million monthly from Iran and smuggling via Syria to restore half its lost arsenal.

With 30,000 active fighters and precision munitions, it poses a multi-front threat; Israel's five outposts and near-daily strikes (hundreds since November 2024) tie down divisions to prevent resurgence.

The IDF, stretched by 295,000 reservists mobilized since 2023 and shortages in munitions, cannot surge south without weakening the north—especially as Hezbollah discusses disarmament conditionally but signals long-term resistance.

Gaza's 2.3 million civilians demand aid oversight to avoid diversion to Hamas, further draining logistics.

4. Political and International Constraints: Backlash and No Viable Alternative

Hezbollah's integration into Lebanese politics allowed Israel to pressure Beirut for enforcement via UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army, which has dismantled 90% of southern infrastructure.

Gaza lacks such levers; Hamas governs amid factional disunity, but no Palestinian Authority alternative exists without risking a "more radical" successor.

Global scrutiny intensified post-Gaza war, with ICJ rulings on occupation and U.S. halts on munitions shipments limiting escalation. The ceasefire, tied to Trump's "Peace in the Middle East" push, prioritizes stability over conquest.

Israeli public fatigue after 715 soldier deaths demands northern returns first.

In sum, the IDF's Hezbollah playbook, precision from afar, limited aims, and external enforcement, doesn't translate to Gaza's quagmire, where Hamas's resilience, civilian entanglements, and the northern front's demands create an untenable mismatch.

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