Erdogan’s New Empire: How the Sunni Axis Quietly Surrounded Israel
The strategy of "pre-empting threats" promised to us on October 8th has been replaced by reactive firefighting and a total loss of deterrence against a resurgent Sunni Axis.
While the eyes of the State of Israel are fixed with anxious anticipation on the Iranian uprisings that erupted in January 2026, a threat no less severe is metastasizing under the national radar. In the brief strategic window between the waning of high-intensity combat in Gaza in September 2025 and the pivot of our attention eastward, a dangerous vacuum was created, and the Sunni Axis is racing to fill it.
The New Syria: The "Turkification" of Jolani
The American withdrawal from Syria was far more than a logistical maneuver; it was the starting pistol for a new era. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani now rules with an iron fist over critical trade routes and oil pipelines. While Jerusalem was busy celebrating the "elimination" of Hezbollah, Jolani has already managed to explicitly threaten Israel twice this month alone.
The bombing of his headquarters may have made for a good photo op, but on the ground, Jolani doesn't take Israel into account. Syria is undergoing a rapid process of re-armament. The achievements gained from the collapse of the Assad regime are vanishing, replaced by a radical Sunni rule under Turkish patronage, presenting Israel with a new Northern Front far more complex than the one we knew.
The Writing on the Wall: A Triple Alliance
The warning is written in bright Sunni letters. A triple alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt is taking shape, with one clear goal: to push Israel to the edge.
Strategy or a High-Stakes Gamble?
Does the Israeli government have a long-term plan, or is it simply betting on a regional Sunni-Shia civil war in the hopes of emerging unscathed? If that is the plan, it is crashing against the rocks of reality.
Hamas is alive and kicking, Hezbollah is far from being decisively defeated, and Iraqi militias continue to operate at full strength.
There is a growing, painful realization that Israel may have sacrificed a "Total Victory" over Hamas and the security of Judea and Samaria on the altar of the "Iranian Nuclear Program." Two years after October 7th, that threat has not been removed; in fact, its equally psychotic sibling, the ballistic missile project, remains firmly on the table.
A Failure of Leadership
If, after all the fighting, the blood, and the sacrifice, the threats against Israel have only multiplied and intensified across new fronts, the Netanyahu government and its leader have failed fundamentally. The strategy of "pre-empting threats" promised to us on October 8th has been replaced by reactive firefighting and a total loss of deterrence against a resurgent Sunni Axis.
It is time for the government to draw the necessary conclusions.