Amit Segal: Netanyahu Has Little Leverage at 77

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aged 77, has very limited control over the negotiations to form Israel's next government, political commentator Amit Segal wrote in his Israel Hayom column on Thursday.

"At 77, the prime minister finds himself in an uncharacteristic position: he is the subject of the coalition negotiations, but not their predicate. Put simply, his range of control over events is extremely limited," Segal wrote. In other words, the talks revolve around Netanyahu, but he is not the one driving them.

"Usually, Netanyahu always has something to give: a reserved slot on the list, a post, an interesting alliance," Segal added. "Now, heading a transitional government, with 46 seats and without the most important mandate of all, which is currently parked with Eisenkot, he is trying to gather intelligence on the other side's plans. Instead of collecting defectors from the other side, rumors have spread in Likud about defections in the opposite direction. David Bitan is mentioned there with concern (he denies it, of course). Netanyahu has no government to offer the chareidim, and he has no posts or prospects to offer defectors."

According to Segal, at the start of the week Netanyahu was convinced that a minority government relying on the Arab parties would be brought to a vote within days. Then, he wrote, "all the red lights went on" over cooperation between Avigdor Liberman and the chareidi parties.

Segal reported that on the morning the new Knesset was sworn in, after a long overnight conversation with the chairman of United Torah Judaism, a temporary all-clear was sounded. "If you join the coalition, Netanyahu told Asher, they will appoint an attorney general and ten Supreme Court justices. 'And then even a majority of 70 seats won't help you. You are furious about the conduct of the legal system, but you are going to entrench it for 30 years.'"

Segal also addressed the silence of Naftali Bennett in recent days. "Naftali Bennett is not to be envied. He now has to defuse two bombs ticking at his door, preferably without anyone knowing," he wrote. "He promised during the election not to rely on the Arabs and not to sit with the chareidim. Now Eisenkot is trying to swear in a minority government relying on Ra'am and the Joint List, and Liberman is racing toward a 61-seat government with Shas and United Torah Judaism." Ra'am is an Islamist Arab party and the Joint List is an alliance of Arab parties, while Shas and United Torah Judaism are the two main chareidi parties.

Segal asked why Bennett does not simply announce that he will not form a government with the chareidim and that he wants a unity government with Netanyahu. "Four problems prevent him from doing so," he answered.

"First, the partner. Lapid wants to replace Netanyahu at any price, in any coalition makeup. The joint journey ended in great disappointment, and it is very doubtful it will be repeated. Some believe the two are already separated within the same shared political home, but they presumably have no interest in sharing their disagreements with the public."

"Second, the faction. In an effort to stem the drift toward Eisenkot, the Bennett list that was elected is more left-wing than he had planned. There is not a single religious Zionist on it, for example. That means less room to maneuver."

"Third, the base. It is doubtful that his new voters would allow him to go into a government with Netanyahu."

"And fourth, and most serious of all: the question of the alternative. Bennett has no independent option of going with the right, because 53+7 is still not 61. Go to elections? Whoever is seen as responsible for that will pay a heavy price. That is why Eisenkot and Liberman are half ignoring him, running their initiatives over his head, in the belief that the pressure will do its work in the absence of alternatives."