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Carrot and stick

US expels Iranians as aides meet Tehran

While Secretary of State Rubio orders immediate removal of Iranian representatives who overstayed UN session, Trump advisers Kushner and Witkoff held lengthy meeting with Iranian foreign minister; is Washington preparing a deal or heading for wider confrontation?

Trump's special envoy Kushner

As the UN General Assembly session closed, two Iranian diplomats were still walking the streets of New York. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not wait: he ordered their immediate removal. One left Friday, the second on Saturday. "Rubio means business," a US official told Axios.

Official sources stress this was not a technical expulsion. It is a clear signal of deteriorating relations, against the backdrop of reports on convoys of ships, military equipment and American fighters being sent to the region, possible preparation for renewed confrontation with Tehran and its proxies.

But in that same New York, behind the scenes, something entirely different was taking place. During the Assembly gathering, a lengthy meeting of some three hours was held between presidential advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, either directly or through intermediaries. Trump himself later said: "Steve and Jared had a very productive conversation with the Iranians. There's positive momentum. That's what we're hearing from everyone."

From the Iranian side came an equally interesting version: the US initiated the meeting, and during it Tehran's preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic shipping lane critical to the world, were conveyed.

This combination, firm expulsion on one hand, direct or near-direct dialogue on the other, and massive military buildup in the background, paints a complex picture of multi-dimensional American policy: absolute intolerance for diplomatic violations, even when there are contacts at the highest level, alongside an attempt to keep open a channel that could lead to regional arrangements, with freedom of navigation in Hormuz at the top of the priority list.

The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz (Photo: US CENTCOM)

Additional background to the tension: some 20 empty Iranian oil tankers are now drifting off the coast of Sri Lanka, without fuel or food. They are part of Tehran's "shadow fleet" that served to smuggle oil under sanctions. After unloading their cargo, they cannot return to home ports without risking attack or seizure by American forces. On board, crews facing growing shortages.

Meanwhile, the US continues to apply diplomatic pressure on Sri Lanka to prevent the supply of food and fuel to the crews. The naval blockade renewed in July on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, after the collapse of a brief interim agreement, created the current situation.

American pressure is evident in other arenas as well. Secretary of State Rubio recently addressed the arrest of five suspects in Britain on suspicion of attempting to detonate a car bomb near RAF Fairford air base outside London. "What almost happened in Britain is a very serious situation. This is a situation that clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor," Rubio said in a Fox News interview, mentioning suspicion of Iranian involvement.

"Iran has openly threatened to attack American interests around the world. We will always take that very seriously. There will be consequences if this ever happens or is even attempted," the Secretary of State made clear.

The coming weeks will tell whether this dual policy, between threat and opening a door, between expulsion and a long conversation, and between military force and diplomatic opportunity, will lead to escalation or to a deal. Meanwhile, New York has already emptied of the two diplomats, and forces continue moving eastward.

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