Republicans’ historic defeat in the midterm elections, which the Wall Street Journal called “the most far-reaching Republican wipeout since Watergate,” has thrown Vice President JD Vance’s political future into doubt and upended the 2028 presidential race, according to a new report by the paper.
On Election Day, as results poured in, Vance received a text from a longtime confidant suggesting he sit out the 2028 race, the Journal reported.
Vance and his inner circle are now weighing hard questions about whether a 2028 campaign is viable. Some of his political allies have told him outright that, in their view, no Republican can win the next presidential election.
According to the Journal, much of the damage traces back to the war with Iran and its economic fallout, including a spike in fuel prices that hit working-class voters hard.
Vance, who built his political career on opposing American military entanglements abroad, tried to head off the war. The Journal reports that he urged President Donald Trump to pursue diplomacy, presenting him with polling he had requested from Rasmussen Reports showing that 65% of Americans wanted congressional approval before military action. Trump went to war anyway, and has since said he would make the same decision again.
The results reshaped the political map. Democrats flipped seven Senate seats, including Vance’s former seat in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown defeated Sen. Jon Husted, and won governorships in Republican strongholds including Georgia and Texas.
Donors look elsewhere
The defeat has also rattled major Republican donors. Several told a veteran New York fundraiser that they “can’t back Vance in 2028,” according to the Journal, citing fears that he is too closely tied to Trump’s unpopular policies and frustration that he couldn’t help the party hold Ohio. Some floated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has criticized the party’s campaign priorities, as an alternative.
Vance’s circle rejects the idea that the results were a verdict on Trump or Vance himself, arguing instead that they reflected a backlash against the war in the Middle East that will fade once the fighting ends.
At the same time, Vance has begun cautiously putting some distance between himself and the war. In a post after the election, he identified the conflict as the main cause of the defeat and said voters want to “change our relationship to Israel.” The move was widely seen in Washington as an early attempt to build an identity independent of Trump ahead of 2028.
According to the Journal, people close to Vance raised other options with him, including running to reclaim his old Ohio Senate seat or for governor. He rejected both.
Despite the setback, Vance still has significant advantages: high name recognition, a lead in early primary polling, the backing of influential figures such as Donald Trump Jr., and his role as finance chair of the Republican National Committee.
Trump has not endorsed a successor. Asked about Vance, he said: “Maybe he won’t run.”
Vance has told associates he has not yet decided.
