90% Chance of War: Why the Next 48 Hours Are the Most Dangerous in Decades

As the 15-day ultimatum issued by President Trump draws to a close, military coordination between the United States and Israel has reached a fever pitch. Reports from the Wall Street Journal indicate that the President is currently weighing an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal. Such a move would be a first step that would be designed to pressure Tehran into an agreement but fall short of a full-scale attack that could inspire a major retaliation, according to the report. This opening assault, which if authorized could come within days, would target a few military or government sites, providing a "traumatic" display of power to convince the regime to abandon its nuclear enrichment once and for all.

The Saturday Timeline and the "Bad Things" Warning

On Wednesday, top national security officials informed Trump that the United States military is prepared for potential strikes against Iran as early as this Saturday. However, sources familiar with the high-level discussions told the press that the timeline for any potential action is likely to extend beyond this coming weekend to allow for final diplomatic efforts. Trump warned Iran earlier on Thursday that it must reach a deal over its nuclear program or “bad things" will happen. The President said negotiations with Iran were going well, but insisted Tehran has to reach a “meaningful" agreement. “Now, we may have to take it a step further - or we may not. Maybe we’re going to make a deal. You’re going to be finding out over the next, probably 10 days," Trump added.

If Iran still refused to comply with Trump’s directive to end its nuclear enrichment following the initial attack, the US would respond with a broad campaign against regime facilities and would potentially aim at toppling the Tehran regime. President Trump has not yet reached a final decision regarding whether to move forward with the strikes, with officials describing the ongoing conversations as fluid. The White House is carefully weighing the risks of escalation against the political and military consequences of restraint, while one source in the US administration estimated there is now a 90 percent chance of war in the coming weeks.

Diplomacy Meets the Armada

While the military hammer is in mid-swing, the diplomatic track remains open for a few more days. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Israel on February 28 to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the visit to discuss Iran. This meeting is seen as the final coordination step before a potential transition from diplomacy to kinetic action. The arrival of the "beautiful armada," which includes over 40,000 troops and the world's most powerful carrier groups, serves as the final pressure point. As the President’s stopwatch continues to run, the choice for the Ayatollahs is clear: provide written, massive nuclear concessions or face the "opening assault" that could lead to the total collapse of the regime.