Internal Erosion: How the Iranian Regime Will Die from Within

While many focus on the immediate possibility of a massive aerial campaign, a legendary figure in Israel’s military history is looking at the long-term decay of the Islamic Republic. Former Israeli Air Force chief Eitan Ben Eliyahu has declared that the Iranian regime is approaching its final collapse, regardless of the immediate outcome of the nuclear standoff. In a detailed interview, the former commander argued that the regime has effectively "finished its career" and is now surviving on borrowed time. While he cautioned that war is not necessarily "tomorrow morning," he emphasized that the internal erosion of the regime is so severe that its downfall is now inevitable, predicting a timeline of just two to four years before the current leadership is swept away by the people.

The Erosion of Power

Ben Eliyahu’s assessment is based on the visible signs of internal collapse within the Iranian state. "The regime in Iran has finished its career," he said, adding, "It will happen soon, in two, three, or four years, it’s finished." He pointed to the "escalating" nature of the protests as a sign that the Iranian public has reached a breaking point. In a large and divided nation, he noted that change takes time, but the unrest currently gripping the streets of Tehran and other major cities will not fade away. According to the former IAF chief, the regime’s legitimacy has evaporated, leaving it with only the tools of repression to maintain order, a strategy that historically leads to a violent and sudden end.

Diplomacy as a Default

Despite his belief in the regime's eventual collapse, Ben Eliyahu remains a pragmatist regarding the current military buildup. He described the movement of U.S. carriers and bombers as essential leverage in the ongoing negotiations rather than proof of an imminent strike. "I never said that diplomacy would win, I said that for now, what’s happening is negotiations," he explained. However, he was quick to clarify that "by default, if it fails, everything is prepared and ready for an attack."

Interestingly, Ben Eliyahu also sought to de-escalate the public’s fear regarding Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. He argued that while the missiles are dangerous, they do not pose an "existential threat" to Israel because they lack the finality of an atomic bomb. Citing Israel’s "exceptional defense system" and the high level of preparedness within the Home Front Command, he suggested that the regime's conventional threats are being effectively neutralized, leaving them with no cards left to play but a nuclear one that the world will never allow them to finish.