Imminent Action: U.S. Envoy Warns Iraq that Israel is Preparing Operation to Disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon
President Trump's envoy to Lebanon warned Iraq’s Prime Minister that Israel is planning an imminent, extensive operation to disarm Hezbollah, and any interference by pro-Iranian militias from Iraqi territory would trigger an Israeli response against Iraq.
The United States has delivered a stark warning to Iraq about an imminent Israeli operation in Lebanon targeting the Hezbollah terrorist organization. This move, reported by the Saudi channel Al-Hadath, signals that the fragile "fighting ceasefire" between Israel and Hezbollah is on the verge of collapse, more than a year after it began.
Tom Barrack, President Trump’s envoy for Lebanon, delivered a clear message to the government in Baghdad during a snap visit: any involvement by pro-Iranian militias from Iraqi territory in the Lebanon fighting will be met with an Israeli response against Iraq itself.
Warning to Iraq's Prime Minister
The warning was reportedly issued during a 70-minute meeting between Barrack and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Baghdad, as detailed by the Qatari newspaper Al-Arabi Al-Jadid.
Barrack's core demands to al-Sudani were:
The envoy warned that the potential Israeli action in Lebanon is expected to continue until the complete disarmament of Hezbollah is achieved. The U.S. concern is that Iran-backed militias, which have previously threatened to intervene from Iraq to support Hezbollah, may follow through, which could dramatically destabilize the currently inactive border between Israel and Iraq.
Escalation and Israeli Preparation
The U.S. warning comes against a backdrop of rising tensions following the recent elimination of Hezbollah’s military chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, in a Beirut airstrike. Tabatabai was the second most important figure in Hezbollah and was managing the terror organization’s recovery efforts. His elimination intensified the cycle of attacks, paving the way for a potential large-scale "weakening phase" by the IDF against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Despite declarations from the Lebanese government about efforts to implement changes, including disarming the terrorist group, IDF forces continue to observe and act against Hezbollah’s attempts to rearm and recruit. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem previously sent a message to Israel stating that "Israeli attacks cannot continue, everything has a limit. We will not give up our weapons."
The IDF is preparing for the possibility of escalating the intensity of its activity in Lebanon, having presented the political echelon with a range of possible actions. Israeli officials understand that the Lebanese government is not doing enough to eliminate Hezbollah's power.
The Lebanon Deadline
The Lebanese government and the Lebanese Army have set the end of 2025 as their target for completing the dismantlement of Hezbollah's infrastructure. Israel is taking this seriously. The political leadership must decide on its course of action, which could be extremely extensive.
Military officials suggest a "basket of responses," some of which are described as "really out of proportion." This indicates that if Israel determines the security reality must fundamentally change, and that returning to the situation prior to October 7 is unacceptable, military action may be unavoidable.
An expert on Hezbollah, Dr. Yehuda Belanga, noted that the prevailing sentiment was that the war could lead to Hezbollah's lowest point. He added that while both sides agreed to a "fighting ceasefire," each side is now attempting to gain advantage from the situation. The result is the so-called "1701 Plus" framework, where an additional force, beyond UNIFIL, such as the Lebanese government or army, is expected to supervise the ceasefire, ideally with American coordination, finally providing Israel with greater backing.