There is currently no verified intelligence pointing to an American decision to use nuclear weapons. The discussion of that possibility has arisen mainly from military analysis and media speculation. Iran, for its part, is exploiting the fear in two ways: psychological warfare — the civil-defence guides are meant to signal to the world, and especially to the American public, that a strike on Mountain Hammer could lead to nuclear escalation and regional catastrophe. The message is clear: do not come near.
At the same time, Tehran understands well that a heavy conventional strike on the facility is a real possibility. Distributing emergency guides heightens the sense of readiness among the population and reinforces the narrative of a regime under existential threat. The Revolutionary Guards have already warned openly: any strike on Mountain Hammer or any other point in Iran will be met with a full response.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, the United States has passed messages to Arab states in the Gulf telling them to prepare for the possibility of a short, intense military campaign against Iran following the American midterm elections. The report points to growing signs that Washington and Jerusalem are preparing another round of strikes.
Mountain Hammer has become the symbol of the current impasse. On one side, Iran continues to fortify and deepen the facility. On the other, the United States is signalling that it is not prepared to leave it unanswered. Between the public threats and the instructions to the Iranian public runs a thin line of tension, with each side trying to deter the other without crossing the red line.
For now, the nuclear-attack guides are mainly a psychological tool. But the very fact that Iran feels the need to prepare its citizens for such a scenario shows how high (and how tangible) the tension around Pickaxe Mountain has become.