A draft law? Amit Segal is deeply skeptical

The government is still standing thanks to a last-minute compromise on a potential draft law agreed upon by the Haredi parties and MK Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. But whether that compromise will actually be made into law remains an open question.

Veteran political reporter and commentator Amit Segal believes the odds of a law passing are not high, though. According to a post of his on X:

"My opinion on the emerging draft plan:

"The ultra-Orthodox are deceiving themselves if they think they’ll be able to improve their position in the near future. What they’ve agreed to will no longer be overturned—on the contrary, it will serve as the minimum baseline. It’s no longer about the attorney general or the Supreme Court—it’s now about the rabbis of Degel HaTorah and Shas.

"The issue of Haredi separatism involves two major problems: the shortage of manpower in the army and their lack of participation in the economy. For years, until October 7, the prevailing belief was that the primary issue was economic. That’s why Naftali Bennett and others supported a full and absolute exemption from a young age—so the Haredim could go out and work. Now, the situation has swung to the opposite extreme—serious economic harm for the sake of the army. Strangely, this means the state will end up enforcing yeshiva supervisors’ prohibitions on yeshiva students: no driver’s licenses, no flights, no academia. The Finance Ministry is surely very unhappy about this.

"The main sanctions are yet to come, expected in 6-12 months. This is the true test: will the leadership push for drafting the "benchwarmers" (idle youth) to save the yeshiva students? In my opinion, again, the Haredim are deluding themselves if they think the issue will be forgotten and that the sanctions won’t be imposed. The train has left the station, and the next stop may not be the Ponevezh or Mir yeshivas, but it certainly is the Haredi fringe youth.

"Precisely for this reason, I still struggle to see a draft law being passed in the Knesset that would force the rabbis themselves to get off the fence and call for enlistment. The gap between them and Israeli society has been fully exposed in all its painful magnitude through numerous recordings and speeches. That’s why I believed over the past year—and still believe—that the Haredim will not topple the government, and that no law will pass. The first part has proven true; we’ll see about the second."