Is War Between Israel and Hezbollah Looming Again?

As the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah holds, barely, into its 11th month, a surge in Israeli airstrikes and targeted killings has reignited fears of a full-scale return to war. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has ramped up operations against Hezbollah's rebuilding efforts in southern Lebanon, eliminating key commanders and striking weapons sites in violation of the November 27, 2024, U.S.- and France-brokered truce.

European diplomats and U.S. officials are sounding alarms that a major Israeli offensive could be "only a matter of time," while Hezbollah vows to respond to any ground incursion.

But with both sides digging in, is all-out conflict inevitable?

The Ceasefire's Crumbling Foundation

The truce, an extension of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, ended a brutal 14-month conflict that began with Hezbollah's rocket barrages in solidarity with Hamas post-October 7, 2023. It called for Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, IDF pullback from southern Lebanon (completed by February 18, 2025), and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) enforcement of a demilitarized zone.

Since then, low-level violations have persisted: 950 Israeli projectiles and 100 airstrikes into Lebanon from November 2024 to mid-October 2025, versus just 21 from Lebanon.

UNIFIL reports highlight mutual accusations, Israel claims Hezbollah is smuggling weapons and rebuilding infrastructure south of the Litani; Hezbollah alleges IDF incursions and drone overflights.

The past two weeks have seen a sharp uptick in defensive IDF actions, aiming to thwart Hezbollah's reconstitution.

A major IDF division-level exercise along the border (October 19–23) simulated multi-front scenarios, signaling readiness for ground ops.

Hezbollah, battered but resilient, has largely avoided major retaliation, focusing on "lessons learned" from 2024's losses, like better dispersal and Iranian-backed drone production. But sources close to the group say it's prepping a "new military plan" for direct response to invasions, potentially coordinated with Iran.

Voices of Alarm: "War Is Coming"

European Officials: Sky News sources warn a "large-scale Israeli attack" is imminent, with unclear fallout for Lebanon.

U.S. Warnings: Special Envoy Thomas Barrack told Lebanon on October 20: Disarm Hezbollah or face "major confrontation."

Budget constraints limit Israel to targeted strikes, not multi-front war, for now.

Analysts & Lebanese Voices:

Washington Institute's Hanin Ghaddar: "All signs... lead to one conclusion: Israel is readying for another war." A Lebanese MP said that Hezbollah's refusal to disarm makes conflict "unavoidable."

The Bigger Picture: Not Inevitable, But Perilously CloseI

Israel's goal remains pushing Hezbollah beyond the Litani and dismantling its arsenal, diplomacy first, but force if needed. With Iran's proxies weakened (post-Gaza ceasefire) and U.S. backing under President Trump, Jerusalem sees a window. Hezbollah, down but not out, ties its fate to Gaza's stability and threatens civil war if disarmed by force.

UNIFIL and global powers urge restraint, but as one analyst notes, "The next war is at the doorstep."

For now, it's brinkmanship, not bombs. But with drones buzzing and strikes mounting, the line between enforcement and escalation is razor-thin.