The New Deterrence
IDF's New Battle Plan: Israel Sets Red Lines Across All Fronts After 'Black Friday' Assassination
Following the targeted killing of Hezbollah's Chief of Staff Ali Tabatabaei in Beirut, the IDF is finalizing operational plans for all sectors and setting precise "red lines" for Hamas rearmament and Iranian capabilities that, if crossed, will force Israel to launch an offensive.
The significant elimination of Hezbollah's de facto Chief of Staff, Ali Tabatabaei, in the "Black Friday" operation yesterday (Sunday) has accelerated a major overhaul of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operational planning. The IDF is now finalizing its battle plans for all fronts and, critically, defining clear "red lines" that, if crossed, will trigger immediate offensive action from Israel.
The assassination, which took place in Tabatabaei's secure apartment in Beirut's Dahiya quarter, was executed with extreme precision and speed. Israeli sources revealed that less than an hour elapsed from the moment intelligence on his location was received until the Air Force struck the highly complex target.
Defining the Threshold for War
The IDF is now re-evaluating the future of the campaign in light of Israel's extensive operations from Iran to Yemen. This requires a fundamental strategic shift from response to preemption, focused on clear thresholds for intervention.
Specific examples of the red lines being drafted by the IDF include:
Military planners are tasked with addressing these scenarios, where a line is crossed and Israel is compelled to transition to offensive action.
The Message Behind the Elimination
The elimination of Tabatabaei, who was a central figure in rebuilding Hezbollah's capabilities and its connection to the Iranians, is considered the dismantling of an emerging strategic threat. More importantly, it serves as a sharp signal to the Lebanese government: If you fail to disarm Hezbollah, Israel will continue to escalate.
A military analyst argued that the policy of containment is over. The "Israel after October 7" will no longer tolerate Hezbollah restoring its previous scale of power. This new reality demands intensified military pressure, especially as diplomatic efforts to enforce the ceasefire agreement and disarm Hezbollah seem inadequate. The analyst stressed that even a measured, proportional response by the terrorist group would be met with an Israeli counter-response of a completely different, disproportionate magnitude, rendering the old equations of deterrence obsolete.
While the IDF is prepared for a response, potentially from smaller Lebanese terrorist groups acting on Hezbollah's behalf, the core message remains one of deterrence through decisive action against strategic threats.