Will Lebanon Strike Back?
Northern Front on Edge: Israel Prepares for "Disproportionate Response" as Hezbollah Confirms Commander's Death
Despite Hezbollah confirming the death of its Chief of Staff in a Dahiya air strike, the IDF is preparing for an "unproportional" response to any potential retaliation, even as security assessments suggest a major escalation is unlikely.
Following a dramatic aerial strike in Beirut's Dahiya quarter, the IDF today (Sunday) eliminated Ali Tabatabaei, the de facto Hezbollah Chief of Staff. Despite the terrorist group confirming his death and referring to him as a "Great Jihad Commander", a title reserved for its most senior figures, Hezbollah's official statement notably refrained from explicitly threatening retaliation.
While security assessments in Israel suggest the high-profile assassination will not lead to a major escalation, the IDF is nonetheless preparing for several potential scenarios and has finalized plans for a "disproportionate response" if fire is directed from Lebanon.
Fear in Northern Communities
The residents of northern Israeli communities are experiencing heightened anxiety, fearing a potential response from the terrorist group. Their primary concern revolves around the possibility of several days of war, which they believe would severely damage the tourism and business recovery that local entrepreneurs have been banking on. Business owners report they are already seeing a decline in revenue solely based on the increased media reports of tension and attacks along the border.
The Targeted Dahiya Strike
The elimination of Ali Tabatabaei was the result of a long-term targeting effort by the Israeli security establishment. Intelligence regarding his precise whereabouts was received by the Military Intelligence Directorate shortly before the Air Force executed the strike, dropping precision munitions on his safe house apartment on the fourth floor of a residential building in Dahiya.
Reports from Lebanon indicated the attack resulted in at least five fatalities and 25 injuries. The Lebanese Army imposed a cordon around the bombed building, and residents reported intensive Israeli drone activity continuing over the area long after the initial strike.
The IDF confirmed that Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir commanded the operation from the Supreme Command Post, alongside Head of the Operations Directorate Major General Itzik Cohen and other senior officers. Zamir stated: "We attacked the most senior commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organization, we will not allow the organization to rearm and strengthen."
Anticipating Retaliation
Although Hezbollah's official statement avoided overt threats, calling Tabatabaei a "martyr for Lebanon following the treacherous Israeli strike in Dahiya," Israeli security forces are operating under a state of elevated readiness.
Security officials estimate that the terrorist group possesses thousands of rockets and missiles. Therefore, one likely response scenario being considered is that a smaller, proxy terrorist organization within Lebanon could execute a retaliatory strike instead of Hezbollah directly.
The IDF has pre-approved "disproportionate" response plans for any fire originating from Lebanon following the assassination. Concurrently, Israel is pushing the Lebanese government to uphold the ceasefire agreement and enforce the demilitarization of Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River.