The Chilling Odds of a New Iranian Strike
Cover for Attack? Israel Alerts US of Suspicious Iranian Missile Drills
Israeli intelligence has identified unusual Iranian missile movements that could be a mask for a surprise offensive, prompting the IDF Chief of Staff to call for immediate coordination with US forces before a potential war breaks out.
A Tense Call Between Commanders
In a significant move to synchronize defense measures, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir recently held an urgent phone conversation with Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM). According to reports from Axios, Zamir expressed deep concern that the "maneuvers" launched by Iran are not merely routine training. He warned that the high state of operational readiness and the movement of missile units across the country could be used to mask the opening salvos of a preemptive strike.
Admiral Cooper arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday for face to face meetings with Zamir and senior military officials at the Kirya in Tel Aviv. The discussions focused on a multi front situational assessment, with a specific emphasis on Iranian movements. While American intelligence suggests there are no current indicators of an "imminent" strike, Israel is adopting a zero tolerance policy for error.
Calculated Risks and Miscalculations
Israeli intelligence sources estimate that the probability of an actual Iranian attack is currently less than 50 percent, but the trauma of the October 7 massacre by Hamas terrorists has fundamentally altered Israel's risk assessment. “The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” an Israeli source told reporters.
The primary fear is that the region could spiral into a full scale war due to a miscalculation. With both sides fearing a preemptive move from the other, the presence of unusual aerial activity and synchronization between drone and air defense units has prompted heightened monitoring.
The Road to Miami: Netanyahu and Trump
This security flare up comes just days before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump in Miami on December 29. Netanyahu is expected to present fresh intelligence regarding Iran’s frantic efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal. Since the 12 day war in June, Iran’s stockpiles were slashed from 3,000 to 1,500 missiles, and their launchers were halved.
However, the pace of recovery is alarming. Israel estimates that without military intervention, Iran could soon reach a production capacity of 3,000 ballistic missiles per year. While the IDF and Mossad do not yet see this as a reason for immediate unilateral action, Netanyahu plans to discuss a range of options with Trump, including independent Israeli strikes, limited US support, or a joint military operation to neutralize the threat before it matures into a new 2026 war.