Internal Poll Reveals Likud's Top Pick for Netanyahu Heir

An internal Likud poll conducted in early January 2026 paints a stark picture of a party firmly united around Benjamin Netanyahu, while quietly positioning several contenders for a future leadership battle if and when he steps aside.

The survey, carried out by pollster Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute and distributed among active Likud members, comes as the party prepares for an as yet unscheduled Likud Conference, upcoming primaries for the party list, and early maneuvering ahead of elections to Israel’s 26th Knesset.

Asked who is best suited to lead Likud in the next election, an overwhelming 80.4 percent of respondents named Benjamin Netanyahu. No other figure came close. The candidate in second place, Gilad Erdan, received just 4.2 percent, underscoring the extent of Netanyahu’s dominance within the party and the absence of any meaningful internal challenge while he remains politically active.

The results reinforce a trend seen in previous Agam Institute surveys over the past year, showing not only stability but a further consolidation of support around Netanyahu, despite ongoing legal proceedings and sustained political polarization. Among Likud members, Netanyahu continues to be viewed as irreplaceable in the present tense.

Where the poll becomes more revealing is in its examination of a hypothetical “day after Netanyahu” scenario. When respondents were asked who they would like to see lead Likud if Netanyahu did not run in the next election, the numbers shifted dramatically, revealing a fragmented field with no clear heir.

In that scenario, Defense Minister Israel Katz leads with 24.4 percent support. He is followed closely by Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana at 20.5 percent. Former Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat places third with 12.9 percent, narrowly ahead of Likud MK Tali Gottlieb, who surprises many observers by securing 12.8 percent.

Further down the list are Justice Minister Yariv Levin with 9.4 percent, Gilad Erdan with 9.1 percent, and a combined “other” category at 6.9 percent. Former defense minister Yoav Gallant trails with 4 percent.

The numbers highlight two parallel realities inside Likud. First, Katz currently enjoys a clear advantage in a post-Netanyahu contest. Second, that advantage falls far short of a decisive mandate. The relatively narrow gaps between Katz, Ohana, Barkat and Gottlieb suggest an open and potentially bruising internal race should the succession question move from theory to reality.

Gottlieb's placement near the top tier is particularly notable. While she polls in the low single digits when Netanyahu is included as a candidate, her jump in the post-Netanyahu scenario reflects strong grassroots visibility and appeal among certain segments of the party base, even if her national profile remains polarizing.

The poll also examined Likud members’ views on a possible presidential pardon for Netanyahu. Seventy five percent of respondents said the party should actively pursue a pardon as soon as possible, while 25 percent preferred to wait for a court ruling and avoid engaging the issue politically.

Among those supporting a pardon, the preferences were even more decisive. Nearly 78 percent backed a full and unconditional pardon. Just over 9 percent supported a pardon that would allow Netanyahu to run again and let the public decide, while only 5.4 percent favored a pardon tied to his retirement from political life. Fewer than 8 percent opposed advancing a pardon altogether.

Taken together, the findings depict a party tightly rallied around its leader, with little appetite for contingency planning in the present. At the same time, the outlines of a future power struggle are already visible beneath the surface.

As long as Netanyahu remains at the helm, Likud’s internal hierarchy appears frozen. If that changes, the poll suggests a wide open race in which no single figure has yet managed to consolidate broad support, and where unexpected players may prove far more influential than their current standing suggests.