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Shadow Diplomacy at Critical Juncture

Israel Braces for Sudden Iranian Strike

Defense establishment on high alert as behind-the-scenes contacts between Washington and Tehran falter, with officials warning collapse of diplomacy could trigger rapid escalation

Illustrative aircraft photo

Israel's defense establishment has elevated its alert posture in response to Iran, as behind-the-scenes contacts aimed at reviving negotiations between Tehran and Washington show signs of strain.

According to a report by Nir Dvori on Channel 12 News, Israeli officials characterize the current moment as a period of acute tension, in which the failure of diplomatic outreach could precipitate a swift deterioration.

Security sources told Channel 12 that Israel is closely monitoring the contacts and believes efforts to reach understandings are still underway. At the same time, preparations are being made for the possibility that the diplomatic initiative will collapse and lead to renewed escalation.

A senior security official told Channel 12: "The situation is sensitive and fluid, we don't know where this will develop, it doesn't look like the Iranians are ready for compromises; things could spiral out of control."

One scenario under consideration is that if negotiations reach an impasse, or if Tehran fears the United States is planning a move against it under the guise of engagement, the Iranians may opt for a preemptive strike. The first targets could be American forces and interests in the Gulf and across the Middle East, though the possibility of an attack on Israel is also on the table.

IDF forces are preparing both for defensive scenarios and for the possibility they will be required to launch offensive operations, with preparations being coordinated with the U.S. military.

Alert levels in the defense establishment have been elevated in recent weeks, but have been further heightened ahead of the holiday period.

Discussions held in Israel have examined several factors that could push the Iranians toward escalation, including Iran's dire economic situation amid American pressure, as well as developments in the Lebanese arena.

Israel is preparing for multiple contingencies should tensions erupt into renewed confrontation, ranging from missile launches from Iran toward Israel to attempts to carry out terror attacks against Israeli or Jewish targets around the world.

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