Deri's apathy warning vs. actual haredi turnout data

Election day for the 26th Knesset is producing a surprising picture so far: the chareidi public, which in the last election cycle was at the center of internal disputes and political battles, is showing relatively high turnout numbers.

While Shas chairman Aryeh Deri issued an emergency call on Tuesday warning of apathy in haredi and right-wing strongholds, the data on the ground tells a different story: the chareidi public is turning out in large numbers, and the midday figures point to a participation rate that may prove historic.

According to voting data as of 12:30, turnout in the chareidi sector stands at around 35%, compared with 31.5% nationally as of 12:00.

In Modi'in Illit, 36.7% of eligible voters have already cast ballots; in Elad, 32%; in Netivot, 31.2%; in Ofakim, 30.2%; and in Bnei Brak, 28.4%. In Jerusalem, where hundreds of thousands of non-chariedi voters also live, citywide turnout stands at 27.1%.

The pace of voting: the real story

But the most interesting figure is not just the turnout percentage, but the pace of participation throughout the day.

According to tracking data, while polling stations identified with the liberal camp recorded active participation in the morning hours, a significant slowdown in the pace of voting has emerged in recent hours. By contrast, chareidi polling stations are maintaining high participation rates even after the morning hours.

This is an important distinction: the cumulative voting percentage tells only part of the story. The central question is which publics continue to arrive at the polls as the day progresses, and which publics are slowing down.

At the same time, there is also a surge in a number of cities identified with Likud. In Afula and Sderot, turnout has reached 30.8%; in Nahariya, 30.03%; and in Or Yehuda, 30%. By contrast, in Be'er Sheva turnout stands at only 24.4%, and in Eilat at 22.2%.

Nationally, participation is particularly high: by 12:00, 31.5% of eligible voters had already cast ballots, compared with 28.4% at the same hour in the previous election.

Deri said in his emergency call: "I am very worried about the apathy in chareidi and right-wing strongholds. The high voting percentages in left-wing strongholds and in the Arab sector are very worrying." According to data in Shas's possession, "according to the data we have, numbers like these have not been seen since 1977."

Still, it is too early to determine how the participation rates will translate into the distribution of votes among the haredi parties, or what the final result will be. What is already clear at midday is that the haredi public is voting at particularly high rates, and unlike the slowdown emerging in the liberal camp, its voting pace remains high.