On the betting site Polymarket, the gap between Eisenkot and Netanyahu is widening: over 60% are now putting their money on Eisenkot forming the next government, while Netanyahu has dropped below 30%
Bad news for Netanyahu, good news for Eisenkot. On the betting site Polymarket, bettors are now giving Gadi Eisenkot a 62% chance of forming the next government.
Netanyahu, who previously stood above 50%, has plunged to just 28%. Naftali Bennett, who briefly led during the campaign, has collapsed to 6%, and Avigdor Liberman sits at a single percentage point.
In Brazil's recent election, bettors went with Bolsonaro by a narrow margin, and only toward the middle of the night, as real vote counts began, did the trend flip in favor of Lula. On the other hand, here the gap already stands at around 30%, and it is doubtful whether it will reverse.
Recent polls have shown a political stalemate, with neither bloc able to form a 61-seat coalition. Eisenkot, however, is building toward a minority government, with fewer than 61 seats, in order to remove Netanyahu from the Prime Minister's Office, then hold on for a few months until new elections or an expansion of the coalition.
Under betting rules, such a move counts as an Eisenkot victory, since he would be prime minister before December 31, 2026.
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