Pollster Tzuriel Sharon, whose surveys came closest to the actual election results, has spoken for the first time about his accurate prediction.
"Sometimes, the truth is also an option," Sharon wrote. "Let's start from the end: this morning, Direct Polls proved itself in the toughest test there is, as the most accurate research and polling company in Israel."
"When you look up from the spreadsheets, you have to admit that there are moments in a pollster's life when the numbers become much more than data. They become a test of professionalism, understanding, method, judgment, experience and technology, and also of courage: the ability to stand behind what you see in the numbers when everyone else, including professionals and experienced people, insists on something different."
Sharon described the election as a personal test for Direct Polls in its new format. "I approached this election with trepidation and great humility. I don't say that as an empty phrase, but out of a deep sense of responsibility and commitment to our clients and to the channel that believed in me from the first moment, in a decision that was not self-evident. Behind every number we published was a commitment to do the most professional work we could, for viewers and clients alike, even when the result was uncomfortable, even when it was surprising, and especially when it differed from everyone else's and we stood alone."
"In the weeks before the election, we found ourselves in that position again and again. Our data showed a different picture from the one presented by other media outlets, and at times the gaps were very large. As election day approached, we drew more attention. There were questions, doubts and criticism. That's natural, and even important. Polls need to withstand criticism, and so do pollsters."
"But criticism and pressure are no reason to change a professional finding. Throughout the process, we checked ourselves again and again: the data, the assumptions, the models and the methods. We weren't looking for a middle ground or a way to move closer to other polls' results. We were looking for a way to stay as faithful as possible to a changing reality. There's a big difference between the two. And when you're convinced the work was done correctly, your responsibility is to publish the results as they are, even if you're the only one saying it."
Sharon added that over the past year, the company had invested heavily in upgrading its technology, both ahead of the election and more generally, describing its systems as "the last word" in research and polling.
"In this election, we worked with clients from both sides of the political map and with almost every party leader in Israel. Quite a few of them challenged us and sometimes tried to convince us we were wrong, but we stood proudly by our professional approach. Baruch Hashem, this morning everyone knows we were the most faithful to the truth."
"Last night at 10 p.m., the first moment of truth arrived. The Direct Polls exit poll broadcast on i24NEWS presented a picture significantly different from every other exit poll, without exception, and above all, one that stood up to the central test of the election: the balance of power between the blocs."
"We told the channel's leadership in advance that we didn't intend to update our exit poll up or down during the night. We stuck with the truth we saw from the very first moment."
"As the night went on and actual results came in, the picture became clearer. The partial data showed an impressive match between our exit poll and the results at the ballot box, both in the number of seats for Likud and in the division between the blocs."
"The count is still continuing, and the picture may change, though not dramatically. Even now, it's clear how significant it was to identify this trend in real time."
In conclusion, Sharon wrote: "For me, this goes far beyond the question of who was right and who was wrong. It confirms the importance of professional independence. It's easier to be part of a consensus or an echo chamber. When your numbers are similar to those of one side or another, you face less criticism. When they're different, any mistake can become a headline. That is exactly why no pollster should let the surrounding noise influence their data. The public doesn't need another voice repeating what has already been said. It needs someone who will present the most accurate picture they can."
"And a final word to my fellow pollsters: I'm sure you worked hard under changing circumstances. You bring professional experience with you, and I'm far from belittling you, especially this morning, despite attempts by interested parties to drag me into that. What a waste of effort. It won't happen."
