Political analyst Amit Segal addressed the actual results flowing in Wednesday morning, which show no majority for either bloc, but a crushing defeat for the change camp.
"The change bloc's defeat and the Arab surge increase the chance for different politics," Segal wrote. "Last night's exit polls broadcast one message: Netanyahu lost, but it's unclear who on the other side won. Here's an update as the actual results flow in: Netanyahu hasn't won yet, but the change bloc has been defeated."
Segal described how the change bloc organized for the election, and what ultimately led to its collapse: "I've covered politics since the start of the century. I've never seen a camp organize for elections in such an exemplary way, so organized, so energetic, as the change bloc. Model surplus-vote agreements, an overseas flights operation like never before. According to the actual vote count, it ended with roughly the same number of mandates as in the previous elections."
"Demographics defeated energy, and the message also proved problematic and failed," he continued. "The public wasn't convinced the war was an absolute victory but also refused to buy the claim it was an absolute failure. It recoiled from chareidi draft evasion, but didn't think the solution was a minority government leaning on refuseniks and anti-Zionists. It was disgusted by the singing of 'We don't believe in Zionist rule' but was shocked by the singing of 'Biladi Biladi' at the Joint List headquarters yesterday."
Segal added: "Netanyahu's situation completely changed between the exit polls closing and the revelation of the actual results. Last night it was clear the Knesset speaker would be ousted, that in any case a minority government headed by Eisenkot would be formed. Now, according to the criteria Eisenkot himself set, his legitimacy to form such a government has been lost."
"They will need active support from the Joint List to form it, and that seems futile and pointless," he wrote. "There's no chance in the Israel of after October 7th that in one coalition, six first-degree family members of those murdered by Hamas will sit for any length of time with MKs who explain that it's actually a charity organization."
"And therefore, like Moshe Dayan in his time with the Arabs, Netanyahu effectively said to the change camp this morning: here's my phone, you're welcome to call. Liberman, Bennett and Eisenkot are now presented with a dilemma from hell: go to another election to which Israelis from abroad will no longer flock, try to join Netanyahu's bloc under harsh conditions and against election commitments, or beg Ra'am and the Joint List drunk with victory."
