Is Iran Out of Time?
President Donald Trump has decided on a potential military strike against Iran but is prioritizing exhaustive diplomatic efforts to compel a fundamental shift in Tehran's policies.
The coming days will determine whether the U.S. and Iran can advance to substantive negotiations. Should talks falter, Trump is prepared to initiate a protracted military operation lasting days or weeks, aimed at overthrowing the regime.
Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran, the deadline for which remains undisclosed, stating cryptically that "only they know" its specifics.The rationale behind this approach stems from U.S. assessments that a brief, high-intensity strike, however precise, would fall short of delivering the decisive outcome Trump seeks. It would neither dismantle the regime nor fully neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile arsenal, or drone capabilities, which pose threats to American interests in the Middle East, Gulf allies, and Israel.
Post-strike, Iran would likely retain sufficient retaliatory power to inflict significant harm, including targeting U.S. naval vessels off its coast and bases in the Gulf. Tehran continues to hold substantial stocks of short-range ballistic missiles (300-500 km range) unscathed by prior operations like "True Promise," alongside long-range variants capable of striking Israel.
The U.S. has shelved limited-scope operations partly because Central Command (CENTCOM) forces in the region lack adequate defenses against missiles and drones to safeguard American personnel, Gulf infrastructure, and allies including Israel. Absent are specialized minesweepers to counter potential Iranian mining of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, contingencies must address possible Houthi actions in Yemen, necessitating forces to secure the Bab al-Mandab Strait and thwart launches from there.
CENTCOM's preference for delay followed by sustained barrages reflects the erosion of surprise as a tactical advantage, crucial for short-duration strikes. Extensive intelligence gathering is required to compile a robust target list for a campaign targeting military assets, regime icons, and leadership across Iran. Initial phases would prioritize neutralizing air defenses, coastal missile systems, and Iran's agile naval craft.The administration views any losses, such as downed aircraft, damaged ships, or captured personnel, as untenable, recalling historical precedents that could hand Iran a propaganda win, undermine domestic protests, and tarnish America's global dominance.
To mitigate this, CENTCOM requires an expansive, current target database with real-time updates, areas where Israeli collaboration could prove invaluable. Preparations for a comprehensive assault are projected to span additional weeks.
CENTCOM is gearing up for an extended engagement, though timelines remain uncertain even among its leadership. Priorities include defensive reinforcements for U.S. and allied assets, including Israel. Deployed units, like the Abraham Lincoln carrier group, blend offensive and protective capabilities. The destroyer Delbert Black, now in the Gulf of Eilat, carries Tomahawk cruise missiles and Aegis defenses, bolstering THAAD systems in Israel. Heavy bombers such as B-2s and B-52s would potentially deploy directly from U.S. bases. Intelligence accumulation ranks second, followed by logistics for a potentially regional conflict involving Iranian proxies. Ground operations in Iran appear unlikely, given past failures like the 1980 hostage rescue debacle under President Jimmy Carter. Timing hinges on CENTCOM's readiness declaration, enabling sequential air and naval strikes against missile sites, residual nuclear facilities, drone production, and Hormuz threats.
Iran's winter cloud cover hampers intelligence and operations, with spring conditions expected to improve viability in weeks.
Ynet contributed to thtis article.