IRGC Power Grab in Iran Undermines Ceasefire Talks

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has tightened its grip over the country’s military and diplomatic decision-making, sidelining more moderate officials and complicating efforts to reach a ceasefire with the United States, according to analysts.

Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, who leads the IRGC, is reported to have assumed a central role in shaping both Tehran’s military actions and its negotiating stance. Analysts cited recent Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s refusal to participate in upcoming talks with Washington as evidence of a more hardline approach.

The shift appears to have undercut figures such as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had previously signaled openness to limited concessions. Araghchi had reportedly agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following understandings with the Trump administration, but the IRGC intervened and insisted the waterway remain closed in response to the US naval blockade.

Vahidi is said to be working closely with Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, further consolidating IRGC influence over both military and diplomatic channels. Zolghadr was reportedly inserted into Iran’s negotiating team to ensure adherence to IRGC directives and the authority of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

According to analysts, internal complaints about flexibility shown during earlier negotiations prompted senior figures in Tehran to recall the delegation, reinforcing the dominance of hardline elements.

The developments suggest that Iran’s formal diplomatic representatives may have limited authority to make concessions, raising doubts about the viability of renewed negotiations. The consolidation of power within the IRGC also challenges US claims that it is engaging with a more pragmatic Iranian leadership following recent military strikes.

With no new date set for talks and the ceasefire deadline approaching, the shift in Tehran’s internal power structure is likely to increase uncertainty over whether diplomatic efforts can prevent a return to broader conflict.