Plan B: Khamenei is Ready to Run if Crackdown Fails

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has prepared a contingency plan to flee the country if security forces fail to contain the nationwide protests, according to a Western intelligence assessment shared with The Times.

The report says Khamenei, 86, would leave Tehran with a small inner circle of aides and family members if he detects widespread defections or a breakdown in command among the Revolutionary Guards, Basij, police, or army units operating under his authority. Moscow is identified as the intended destination.

An intelligence source quoted by the newspaper described the plan, referred to internally as “Plan B,” as covering Khamenei, his son and potential successor Mojtaba Khamenei, and roughly 20 close associates. The group is said to have mapped an exit route from Tehran and prepared financial arrangements to facilitate a rapid departure.

The reported plan mirrors the flight of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, who escaped to Moscow in late 2024 as opposition forces advanced on Damascus. Assad, a long-time ally of both Tehran and Moscow, was granted asylum by Russia.

According to the assessment, Khamenei’s circle has also taken steps to secure access to overseas assets and cash reserves. A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated that Khamenei controls holdings worth roughly $95 billion through Setad, a sprawling system of foundations and semi-state entities. Many senior Iranian officials are also believed to have relatives living abroad, including in North America and the Gulf.

Former Israeli intelligence officer Beni Sabti told British media that Moscow is effectively the only viable destination for Khamenei in the event of regime collapse, citing his long-standing ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s willingness to shelter embattled allies.

The intelligence profile describes Khamenei as increasingly frail following last year’s 12-day war with Israel, assessing that the conflict intensified his focus on personal survival. During the fighting, he reportedly remained in a fortified bunker for extended periods.

The report comes amid continuing protests across Iran driven by economic hardship, inflation, and unemployment. Demonstrators have accused security forces of using live fire, tear gas, and mass arrests to suppress dissent.

In a speech over the weekend, Khamenei acknowledged economic grievances but warned that authorities would show no tolerance toward what he termed “rioters.” While calling dialogue with protesters “necessary,” he said those engaging in unrest “must be put in their place.”