A new survey conducted by polling firm Ipsos-BVA for the French newspaper Le Parisien examines potential matchups in France's 2026 presidential election, with particular focus on far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen's candidacy.
The data shows Le Pen commanding a significant lead in the first round of voting, capturing approximately 34% support across all scenarios tested. Meanwhile, competition for the second spot, and a place in the runoff, varies depending on which candidates face off against her.
The poll tested various scenarios featuring former prime ministers under President Emmanuel Macron, including Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, against far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has been criticized for antisemitic rhetoric. In some scenarios, Mélenchon could advance to a second-round contest against Le Pen, who maintains a comfortable first-round lead across the board.
The survey also measured public concern about different candidates. Le Pen generated the lowest level of apprehension among voters, with six out of ten respondents saying she worries them "a little or a lot", despite a decade of left-leaning media warnings about the "danger of Marine Le Pen."
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe registered 64% concern levels. Other candidates tested showed higher anxiety ratings: Gabriel Attal at 71%, Bruno Retailleau and Raphaël Glucksmann at 72%, Olivier Faure at 79%, and Marine Tondelier at 80%. Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and far-right Jewish candidate Éric Zemmour topped the list, with 81% of French voters expressing concern about either taking power.
Recent polling consistently shows Le Pen maintaining a clear lead regardless of which opponent she would face.
