Polymarket data

Le Pen leads French race amid riots

Betting site Polymarket places Marine Le Pen ahead in 2027 presidential election odds, with her numbers rising as violent protests sweep France

Eliana Fleming

OCT 6, 2026 22:37

2 min read

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International betting platform Polymarket has placed Marine Le Pen as the frontrunner in France's presidential election, scheduled for April 18, 2027. After a slight dip last week, Le Pen's odds have climbed again in recent days, apparently driven by the wave of violent protests that have swept France.

According to Polymarket data, Le Pen's chances of winning now stand at 43 percent. Behind her are two right-wing candidates: former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe holds second place with 18 percent, and Caen mayor David Lisnard is third with 13 percent.

Among left-wing parties, far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads the field, currently ranked fourth overall with a 12 percent chance of victory. The candidate representing outgoing President Emmanuel Macron's party, parliamentary group chairman Gabriel Attal, sits in sixth place with just 2 percent.

Despite the rankings, Polymarket has been blocked in France since July of last year, meaning all bets on the election outcome come from people who do not live in the country and will likely not vote in the election. The decision to block Polymarket was made at the demand of France's gambling regulator, which feared the site could expose users to significant financial losses and that some of the bets offered on it could be subject to manipulation.

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