Iran has deliberately prolonged its talks with the United States to try to weaken President Donald Trump politically ahead of next month's midterm elections, senior Iranian officials told Reuters.
Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran is convinced Trump is ready to launch a new wave of strikes to break the stalemate in the eight-month-old war.
"Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," one of the officials said. "The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory."
With Tehran refusing to make concessions it believes could benefit Trump politically, the officials said, there is little chance of a breakthrough before the November 3 elections. Keeping the situation somewhere between war and peace through the midterms lets Iran keep pressure on Washington while still professing its commitment to diplomacy.
Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said that by prolonging the talks, "Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action."
Stuck on sequencing
The two sides are deadlocked over the order of negotiations. Washington wants Iran's nuclear program on the agenda from the start. Tehran insists that the conditions of its "seven-day plan" must be met first.
Under that proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, though under Iranian control. In exchange, Washington would lift its maritime blockade, ease restrictions on Iranian oil exports, release frozen assets and end hostilities on all fronts. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the offer remains on the table.
Iranian attacks, both threatened and real, have cut shipping through the strait to a trickle. At the same time, the U.S. blockade and sanctions have choked off Iran's oil revenues. Iranian seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September and remained there as of October 5, according to Vortexa data.
Deep distrust
The officials said deep distrust of Washington has reinforced Tehran's reluctance to strike a quick deal. "The fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change … and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu's policy of seeking to bring down Iran's ruling establishment," Leylaz said.
"Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust," he added. "Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo."
