Poll: Le Pen wins French presidency in all scenarios

A new poll in France gives National Rally leader Marine Le Pen an unprecedented advantage heading into the 2027 presidential race. According to the findings, Le Pen not only leads by a wide margin in the first round, but defeats every possible opponent in the second round from across the political spectrum.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos-Fiducial for major French media outlets, gives Le Pen between 34% and 38% of the vote in the first round. The figures reflect a rise of up to two percentage points compared to polls conducted a week earlier, before the far-left protests.

While most of her rivals remained unchanged or weakened, she has opened a gap of 18% to 22% over the second-place candidate.

Le Pen and Bardella on the streets of France a day after the ruling (Photo: Marine Le Pen)

The most significant development in the current poll is in the second round. For years, the "republican front" mechanism, an informal agreement in which voters from all camps united in the second round behind any candidate facing Le Pen's party, prevented her from reaching the Élysée Palace. That mechanism now appears to be suffering deep erosion.

According to the poll, Le Pen wins in all five scenarios tested for the decisive round. Her largest margin is against far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 68% to 32%. She also defeats former president François Hollande by 18 points and leftist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann by 14 points.

Even central figures in the centrist camp cannot close the gap: former prime minister Gabriel Attal loses to Le Pen by 16 points, while Édouard Philippe, considered until now the strongest alternative from the centre, takes only 44% against Le Pen's 56%.

Alongside the strengthening of the right, the centrist camp associated with President Emmanuel Macron continues to sink. After nearly a decade of dominance in French politics, the centre is suffering from internal splits among its leading figures and difficulty consolidating a leading candidate to replace Macron, who cannot run for a third term.

The split is clearly reflected in the numbers, with Philippe dropping to just 12% in the first round in a scenario where Attal runs against him. The erosion of the centrist model and the absence of a unified alternative leave the French public more polarised than ever.

Last month, the investigative newspaper Mediapart published what it claimed were antisemitic messages by Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's protégé and designated successor. The investigation, which lasted several months and reviewed hundreds of conversations, alleged that Bardella made antisemitic statements in written chats from 2013. Bardella firmly rejected the claims and called them crude fabrications.

Bardella is the candidate for prime minister in a Le Pen government, and at this stage the investigation appears to have had no impact on voter intentions.