Polls opened across Brazil on Sunday in a presidential runoff that has split the country down the middle: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, against conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The final Datafolha poll before voting began showed the two candidates tied at exactly 50 percent each among valid votes cast, a statistical dead heat heading into decision day.
The tie caps a campaign that has been tight from the start. In the first round on October 4, neither candidate won outright: Bolsonaro took 47 percent of valid votes to Lula's 45 percent, forcing today's runoff.
More than 150 million registered voters are eligible to cast ballots using electronic voting machines across Brazil's 26 states and federal district. Polling stations opened at 8:00 a.m. local time and are scheduled to close at 5:00 p.m., with initial results expected shortly after as the electronic count proceeds. First results are expected to begin coming in at 5:00 p.m. local time, 10:00 p.m. Israel time.
Battle for Brazil's future
Lula, who served as president from 2003 to 2010, returned to power in 2022 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points. He is now seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.
Facing him is Flavio Bolsonaro, who entered the race after his father was barred from holding public office and sentenced to 27 years in prison following legal proceedings related to an alleged military coup plot after his 2022 election loss. Despite the elder Bolsonaro's legal troubles, the family retains significant political strength: Michelle Bolsonaro, the former president's wife, won election to the federal Senate in the first round.
The campaign has centered on the cost of living, public safety, and corruption concerns. The outcome is expected to shape Brazil's political and economic direction and its relations with the United States and other nations.
What it means for Israel
For Israel, the identity of Brazil's next president carries weight. Lula's current term has seen diplomatic tensions over the Gaza war, including sharp statements against Israel. The Bolsonaro family, by contrast, is identified with the conservative right and a more sympathetic posture toward Israel, a continuation of the approach Jair Bolsonaro took during his presidency, when he cultivated ties with Israel and the Trump administration.
A Flavio Bolsonaro victory could signal a shift in Brazil's foreign policy and open the door to renewed closeness with Israel.
The decision now rests with voters: with the final poll showing a perfect tie, attention turns to turnout, the count, and the results that will begin emerging after polls close.
