Iran is the Sole Winner as the ‘Lion’s Roar’ War fades into a ‘Cat’s Whimper'
Maariv Senior Analyst Avi Ashkenazi slams the Israeli government for squandering military brilliance under American pressure, leaving the North exposed and Tehran triumphant.
The tactical brilliance of the Israel Defense Forces was not enough to overcome a strategic failure by the political leadership, according to a blistering new analysis by Avi Ashkenazi.
Writing for Maariv on Thursday, the veteran senior analyst argued that the current ceasefire represents a "bitter draw" that ultimately hands a total victory to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Ashkenazi, widely regarded as a leading voice on Israeli defense and security matters, describes a military establishment boiling with frustration. He claims that officers at every level, from the junior ranks to the senior command, believe they were on the cusp of neutalizing the threat from Hezbollah and Iran until the political echelon, following "American dictates," pulled the plug.
"Without reservation, there is only one winner in this war, and her name is Iran," Ashkenazi writes. He paints a grim picture of the regional balance of power. According to his analysis, the Iranian regime has survived forty days of direct attacks with its leadership intact, its uranium enrichment ongoing, and its influence on global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues.
The analyst draws a sharp comparison to the 2006 Second Lebanon War, noting that the current operation, dubbed "Lion's Roar," has failed to deliver a "reality changing" political outcome. He mocks the high stakes diplomatic efforts in Washington, suggesting that the meetings between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are merely a facade for the cameras while the real decisions continue to be made by the Revolutionary Guard in Tehran.
"The soldiers of the IDF are exiting this campaign frustrated by a sense of a massive missed opportunity," Ashkenazi asserts. He highlights that while the Air Force struck thousands of targets and the military maneuvered deep into Lebanon, the lack of a decisive political victory means the threat to northern Israeli communities has merely been delayed rather than removed.
For Ashkenazi, the "cold draw" is a strategic defeat for the Israeli public, particularly for those in the North who he says have been "forgotten" and remain without even basic bomb shelters. He concludes that the opportunity for a "glorious victory" was traded for a "frozen tie" that leaves Israel's most dangerous enemy stronger and more confident than before.