Deep concerns
Israeli Nobel Laureate's Dark Prophecy: "No Way to Stop This"
Prof. Joel Mokyr, who just won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, shares his over the future of Israeli society, stating a lack of core education for the Haredi community could lead to a theocratic state within decades.
Professor Joel Mokyr, the acclaimed economic historian and newly minted Nobel laureate, issued a bleak warning this week about Israel’s long-term social and political future. Speaking to Anat Davidov and Yael Aylon on Radio 103FM following his win, Mokyr expressed deep alarm that without immediate changes, Israel risks transforming into a theocratic, "pre-modern" state within 30 to 40 years. Mokyr, who holds dual Israeli and American citizenship and is known for his work on the Industrial Revolution, said his concerns stem directly from demographic trends and the lack of a core curriculum in the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) education system.
A Return to the Middle Ages?
When asked how concerned the public should be, Professor Mokyr did not mince words: "I am concerned. The numbers are very troubling," he stated.
He stressed that based on the writings of Israeli economists and demographers, "it is completely clear there is no clear way to stop this process."
"If there are no changes within the Haredi community that succeed in bringing them into the 21st century and making them understand that without core curriculum studies, a modern society cannot function, in 30-40 years, Israel will be a theocratic state," Mokyr warned.
"A state that in many respects returns to the Middle Ages, and that troubles me in an extraordinary way. Israel was founded as an enlightened, secular, and progressive state, and these things are no longer self-evident today."
Mokyr, an economic historian at Northwestern University and a research fellow at Tel Aviv University, contrasted Israel's incredible technological progress with its social fragility.
He noted that humanity's material life has improved exponentially over the past century due to what he calls 'useful knowledge', science and technology, a concept dating back to the English philosopher Francis Bacon.
"Life today in 2025 is infinitely better than it was even 100 years ago, not to mention 300 years ago," he said, citing longer life expectancy and freedom from natural hunger. "In terms of technological progress, Israel is an amazing country; the entire world looks at Israel and marvels that such a small place produces so much talent and capability."
However, he lamented that socially and politically, progress has lagged: "It's very difficult to say we have advanced much compared to that period. The political culture in the world has not improved in parallel with the technological culture."
Mokyr expressed particular sadness that a large portion of Israel’s renowned creativity is directed not at improving the quality of life, "but toward military objectives. I understand the need for it, but that is the tragedy of wars, of incorrect politics, and of hatred."
Mokyr also cast a shadow over the strength of democratic institutions globally, referencing contemporary political issues: "Unfortunately, democracy is not a perfect system; in many cases, democracy has brought corrupt and contaminated people to power who then liquidated the democracy. That is essentially what Vladimir Putin did in Russia, Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Erdoğan in Turkey."
He concluded that humanity has yet to overcome the "original sin" of failing to create political institutions immune to this kind of corruption, noting that even in the United States, "democracy is fragile, there are threats to democracy."
Professor Mokyr, born in the Netherlands in 1946 to Holocaust survivors, immigrated to Israel with his mother. He completed his B.A. at the Hebrew University and his M.A. and Ph.D. at Yale University.