Rising Doubts: Is Israel Actually Winning?

As the sun rises on the 23rd day of Israel's "Operation Roaring Lion," the Middle East stands at a critical crossroads. While the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign has delivered historic blows to the Iranian axis, a definitive conclusion remains just out of reach.

From the halls of the White House to the bunkers in Southern Lebanon, the pressure for a "clear victory" (Hachra’a) is mounting.

The state of play across the five critical arenas of this conflict proves that such a victory remains elusive.

1. The Iranian Heartland

There is no doubt that Tehran has been battered. The regime is significantly weakened, and with the internet across Iran still largely dark, the true scale of the internal collapse is only just being realized. However, the mission is far from over:

Despite the strikes, the U.S. and Israel have yet to secure or destroy the 440 kg of highly enriched uranium known to be in the regime's possession.

Desperate to shift the pressure, Iran is attempting to "export" the war. This includes the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a shocking missile strike yesterday targeting Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a clear signal that Tehran can reach Western assets far beyond its borders.

2. Lebanon: The "Band-Aid" Strategy

The IDF has committed three elite brigades, the 401st, Paratroopers, and Nahal, to heavy fighting. While tactical gains are being made, the strategic reality is grim.

The Missile Threat: Rocket fire into Metula, Kiryat Shmona, and the Galilee panhandle continues unabated.

There is a lingering hope in some circles that the Lebanese government, backed by Riyadh and Paris, will disarm Hezbollah. The chance of that happening is roughly the same as winning the lottery without buying a ticket.

3. The Home Front: Resilience vs. Leadership

Yesterday’s missile strike on a kindergarten in the Israeli city of Rishon LeZion served as a chilling reminder of the stakes. While the building was decimated, tragedy was avoided only because the children were not present.

The Israeli public continues to show remarkable "civilian responsibility" and resilience.

Yet there is growing frustration with the lack of a long-term strategy for daily life. Critics are pointing to the "education vacuum," calling for the immediate preparation of underground schools and parking-lot classrooms, similar to the protected hospitals already in operation.

4. The Gulf States

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf are no longer silent observers. This past week, they are privately urging the U.S. and Israel to finish the job. However, they are also playing a cautious game, weighing whether to enter the fray directly as the U.S. has requested, or simply wait for the dust to settle.

5. The Trump Doctrine: The 8-Month Countdown

With the 2026 midterm elections just eight months away, President Trump is operating on a specific timeline.

Oil and Energy: The President needs the Gulf states to flood the market with oil to crash prices and stabilize the global economy.

For the Trump administration, this war is not just about Iran, it is a message to China and the "Axis of Resistance." Anything short of a total victory on the nuclear and energy fronts will be seen as a failure of the "Maximum Pressure" doctrine.

America's "Epic Fury", and Israel's "Roaring Lion" have been loud, but the enemy is not yet silenced.

Without a clear strategy that addresses the nuclear stockpile and the energy blockade, the risk of a "forever war" in the East remains high.

Stay with JFeed for live updates and expert analysis as the 24th day of operations begins.