Eylon Levy breaks down Israel's choices: Fight this War, or accept October 7th 2.0

This is a personal note, written from the heart, about the impossible choices that Israel faces after nearly 600 days of war. It was originally published on my Twitter (follow here). I hope that this resonates with you.

Today, I am conflicted.

Over the weekend, Israel launched Operation Gideon's Chariots. It marks the latest, bloody phase of the war Hamas launched on October 7, 2023 with a barbaric massacre of Israeli civilians, an attack that triggered a regional war against the Jewish state on seven fronts.

The Israeli operation is intended to end the war with the defeat of the terrorist army that started the war. It has two goals: to pressure Hamas to free the hostages, and then to crush this enemy regime and its military.

I want this war to end, and so I want this operation to succeed. But tonight, I am conflicted. And before I explain why I'm conflicted, I'll explain why I'm sharing.

When Hamas declared war, I was not a spokesman for the Israeli Government. On the contrary. I was one of the many Israelis protesting against the Netanyahu government (the photo evidence would be my undoing). But then everything changed, we united as a country, and I put politics aside. The country needed cannon fodder in hostile interviews and I jumped on the grenade. Eventually Mrs. Netanyahu clocked that I was in the anti-government protests before the war and I was forced out. But that's another story.

I mention this to explain that not only do I not represent the government, I also owe nothing to this government (I have never even met Netanyahu, if you can believe it). I see my role now — as a private citizen — as not to defend the government's decisions, but to explain the impossible and agonizing dilemmas facing Israel. I don't care if you agree with this or that decision. I care that you understand the impossible situation we're in.

Right now, there are up to 23 living hostages rotting in the dungeons of Gaza, where they are being starved, tortured, and even sexually abused. There are also 35 bodies of hostages Hamas has already murdered, using as chips to torture their families. We need to get them all out. They could have been any one of us. It could have been me, or my friends. Families ripped out of their beds. Youngsters kidnapped from a music festival. Young conscript soldiers, seized from defensive posts.

Hamas is demanding a ransom for their release.

It is demanding the release of thousands of convicted terrorists and an end of the war, with international guarantees that it can remain in power. There is a horrific debate in Israel about whether we can afford this ransom. The Netanyahu government has decided we cannot. Many Israelis think we should pay it anyway, to save them. It is insane that we're having a debate about the price of our fellow citizens' lives, but Hamas is demanding a price, so we're forced to decide what it is.

Most of the hostages' families want the government to pay the ransom. It is a core, unshakable part of the Israeli ethos that we do not leave anyone behind. You don't abandon a wounded soldier in the field. And definitely not a civilian snatched from his bed. As they're saying in the rally tonight in Tel Aviv, "nothing else matters right now". Save them now, worry about the costs later.

If someone in my family were abducted, I would demand the same. Nothing else matters. And if I were in power, I would probably pay the ransom (I would also order a state commission of inquiry, but that is another matter). We have been checkmated. We will never forgive ourselves if we fail to bring our fellow citizens. It will break our social contract. Hamas knows that, of course, and that's why it exploits our greatest strength, our sense of solidarity, as our Achilles' heel.

This ransom comes at a cost, and this point is worth hammering. The terrorists we release from jail WILL take hostages in future, because we are showing it works. There is a reason most countries don't pay ransoms to terrorist hostage-takers.

We got soldier Gilad Shalit back for 1,000 terrorists in 2011; one of them was Yahya Sinwar. Hamas is demanding the hostage-takers of tomorrow for the hostages of today. And ending the war with Hamas in power means Hamas will remain in power and will rearm.

Anyone telling you that ending the war with Hamas in power means it won't remain in power is not being entirely honest with you. Hamas is not going to disarm itself or resign voluntarily. Saudi Arabia isn't going to coax it to quit. And nobody is going to condition reconstruction aid on Hamas laying down its arms.

In any case, Phase III of the original ransom deal would allow Hamas to hold onto the bodies of dead hostages anyway during reconstruction, guaranteeing that rebuilding will take place on its terms.

Leaving Hamas standing means it will rebuild its tunnels and its missile silos. And it will attack when it's ready. Because Hamas is a jihadi army whose stated purpose for existence is to wage war until Israel is destroyed. There's no such thing as a "permanent ceasefire".

If this is not the last Gaza war, there will be a next Gaza war, and it will be worse. Why? Because Hamas will conclude the world will keep saving it from the wars it starts. Because its human shield strategy will be vindicated. Because it will take hostages again, knowing this is our Achilles' heel.

And we want this to be the last Gaza war, because we're sick of war and want no more fighting. It's just not true, as some have written, that "total victory" is some far-right fantasy. The policy of containment that Netanyahu led before the war failed. We're not going back to it. We cannot live with this terror state on our borders, or the next war is a matter of time. Enough war.

The Netanyahu government has decided that we cannot pay this ransom, and so Operation Gideon's Chariot is intended to get us better terms. Military pressure is the only leverage we have over Hamas, besides controlling the entry of supplies into Gaza, which is its main pipeline.

Other countries have leverage over Hamas — via its patrons, Qatar, Turkey, and Iran — but they're not using it. Because they're craven and venal, and money speaks loudest. We'll deal with that later. The operation is also intended to end the game of "cat and mouse" that has seen Israeli soldiers recapturing areas we have already withdrawn from: push Hamas out once, and then keep it out until it is crushed like ISIS was crushed.

So why am I conflicted? Because I think everyone's right. I think the minority of hostage families supporting military pressure are right that this is the only leverage we have to get our hostages back (other than paying the ransom that leaves it in power).

And I think the majority of hostage families who say that a military campaign endangers the hostages are also right. Hamas could conclude the hostages are worthless and execute them, like it has executed so many before. It's possible that the only leverage we have to get the hostages out is also extremely risky for them.

I think the people who say that bringing the hostages back is the #1 priority are right, and I think those who say that leaving Hamas in power as the price for getting them back guarantees future war are also right. We have no good choices. We can't afford to pay this ransom, and we also can't afford not to.

As an Israeli, I fear a future in which those hostages are abandoned to die in Gaza. I also fear a future in which Hamas regroups to plot the next October 7 Massacre.

I want to be proven wrong. If I have analyzed the dilemmas wrong, please tell me. If there's another way out, tell me. The cognitive dissonance is killing me.

Tell me I'm wrong. I want to be wrong.

Early in the war, when I was still in character as a government spokesman, I was asked about my personal opinion. I said with a wry smile that I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions, only explain them. Now that the war has become increasingly contentious at home, I'm glad that I don't even have to explain them. I only have to explain the impossible trade-offs behind them.

One day, we will heal.

One day, we will rebuild.

One day, we will dance again. Walk down the Tel Aviv Promenade on a Saturday night, and you'll see that despite the constant threat of ballistic missile attacks, we're still loving life and have found a weird way to sustain a facade of normalcy in this upside down world.

War is hell. We didn't want this war. We didn't start this war. We didn't even expect this war. But by God, we have to win this war. Or there will be a next, worse war, which we don't want. And that means all the goals of the war. Defeating Hamas and bringing back the hostages.

I pray that our soldiers and hostages return safely, and that innocent people caught in the crossfire escape it.

Eylon Levy is a British-Israeli political commentator, former Israeli government spokesman, and host of the State of a Nation podcast. Previously an international media advisor to President Isaac Herzog, he gained prominence during the October 7 War with Hamas. Educated at Oxford and Cambridge, he is a co-founder of the Israeli Citizen Spokespersons’ Office. His work includes translating Catch-67 and advocacy for Israel globally

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