Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is operating on the assumption that he is heading for a sweeping election victory, and that belief is shaping every move Likud makes in the run-up to 2026, including its efforts to eliminate Ofer Winter's party before it can take root. That is the assessment of Channel 12 political analyst Amit Segal, who laid out the strategic thinking behind Netanyahu's recent maneuvers in a studio briefing this week.
Segal explained that while the major public polls show Netanyahu's bloc losing seats and falling short of a governing majority, a different set of numbers is circulating inside Likud, internal surveys and certain polling channels that paint a far rosier picture, one in which Netanyahu wins decisively. "Netanyahu is buying the more optimistic polls," Segal said. That optimism, he argued, is now the starting point for Likud's campaign: a conviction that they are on the verge of an outright majority, which leads them to avoid risky moves like televised debates and to act aggressively against rival right-wing parties that could split the vote.
