From Chaos to Stability: Trump's Second Term Pivot

President Trump opened his second term with a storm. But since then, things have calmed down.

In the early months, we saw Zelensky on the grill, Iran under direct threat, Gaza seemingly on the path to forced transfer, Europe reeling from commercial retaliation, and Elon Musk’s DOGE coin everywhere. It felt like a whirlwind presidency in the making.

But America has since settled. Trump backtracked on global trade tariffs. Talk of population transfer from Gaza has faded; largely, some suggest, because Prime Minister Netanyahu has no intention of removing the Gazans or ending the war, since the conflict itself justifies his political survival and continued grip on power. Zelensky, who endured a humiliating public dressing-down, has returned to being a vital ally. Putin, who was initially treated with kid gloves, is now said by Trump to have "lost his mind." Musk, once a familiar face in the West Wing, is no longer part of the White House dynamic. All this invites the notion that the early shocks and aggressive maneuvers were perhaps not signs of chaos but rather components of a strategy, one aimed at testing the global pulse and, more importantly, restoring America to its role as the central actor on the world stage.

As the recent friendly meeting between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Trump demonstrates, Europe, which just three and a half months earlier was entertaining the idea of a world order without the United States (an unrealistic notion), is now clearly recalibrating.

Meanwhile, Iran, after enduring heavy threats, has come to the negotiating table. And the shift in policy regarding Syria has been so sweeping, it hardly requires elaboration.

It seems that President Trump has managed to stabilize the international arena diplomatically and politically, even without resolving the war in Ukraine or the crisis in Gaza. Chinese threats against Taiwan have decreased in frequency, though they have not vanished entirely. The hotspot in Yemen, long a source of instability, has seen a ceasefire agreement mediated by the United States and Yemen. More broadly, America’s isolationist posture has matured into what appears to be a realistic business-first foreign policy.

After securing billions, if not trillions, in new investments, Trump shows no signs of reversing course. His second term may be remembered above all for a single defining headline: America is once again open for business, without unrealistic fantasies.

And Trump, with his larger-than-life persona, won’t allow that to derail his business-focused agenda.